When the Islanders left the Tampa Bay ice at the hands of defeat last June, an off-season of uncertainty began. When Lou Lamoriello informed the Seattle Kraken that he would expose Josh Bailey in the Seattle Expansion Draft, the level of uncertainty rose drastically.

The longest-tenured Islander by a landslide, Bailey is beginning his fourteenth season in the NHL, all as an Islander. A well-respected player and leader within the clubhouse and beyond, Bailey provides value that one cannot quantify. Nonetheless, his production on the ice has been relatively poor this season. Is there room for concern, or will Bailey regain his prime form?

This season, Bailey’s numbers have been far below his norm. His Goals Above Replacement (GAR) is -0.9––the second lowest on the team––which means that he has cost his team approximately one goal this season. Additionally, his Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) is 38.53, suggesting that the opposition has benefited significantly from his presence on the ice.

Digging deeper, one can find that Bailey’s linemates, Anthony Beauvillier and Brock Nelson, have experienced similar struggles thus far into the new season. Beauvillier’s GAR sits at -0.6, the third lowest on the team, and Nelson’s GAR leads only Beauvillier, Bailey and Zdeno Chara with a -0.5 GAR. Both Beauvillier and Nelson have an xGF% well below 50, so they have not made a positive impact on the ice at all. Thus, is Josh Bailey the issue, or is his lackluster production a mere byproduct of his struggling line.

The reality is that the entire line has not generated the quality of scoring chances that they did in previous seasons. Per HockeyViz, the most concentrated shooting area in the offensive zone in 2020-2021 for the Islanders’ second line was in front of the net. This year, it is nowhere near the net or the slot. Although a small sample, the shots that this line takes have been relatively low-danger shots, primarily concentrated near the perimeter of the ice.

Questions surround the Islanders’ defense as Chara finds his way with his new team, so the Islanders’ offense needs to pick up the slack sooner rather than later. Additionally, the Islanders do not rely heavily on any individual player on offense, so they must continue to receive production from all four lines to retain its title as a bona fide Stanley Cup contender. To do this, Bailey, along with Beauvillier and Nelson, must focus on creating more scoring opportunities around the net instead of the perimeter.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.