Life was quite different before Barry Trotz and Lou Lamoriello.
June 30th, 2018. John Tavares was the captain of the New York Islanders. July 1st, 2018. The long-time Islander indirectly forfeited his captaincy to turn his childhood dream into a reality, signing a lucrative contract to play for his hometown team, the Toronto Maple Leafs. On the Island, he left behind a team with a young star in Mathew Barzal, the reigning Stanley Cup-winning H=head coach in Barry Trotz, and an experienced General Manager in Lou Lamoriello. One moment, the future was bright for the New York Islanders. The next moment, however, the New York Islanders franchise seemed doomed for a rebuild. Barry Trotz had other ideas.
The biggest misconception in hockey is the idea that only teams filled with star offensive players have a realistic chance to compete for the Stanley Cup. There have been clear prior cases in which star players on successful teams proved to be valuable, as evidenced by the Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings and Pittsburgh Penguins teams of the 2010s. However, the most essential attribute that all successful hockey teams share is the presence of a successful identity.

The Pittsburgh Penguins, who won consecutive Stanley Cups in 2015-16 and 2016-17, finished third and first respectively in goals scored while maintaining a steady defensive core led by Kris Letang, and strong goaltending with Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray between the pipes.
The Edmonton Oilers, on the other hand, had four first overall draft picks between 2010-2015, yet their lack of a successful identity has allowed them to make the playoffs only once since 2006. Since that time, the Oilers have had star forwards, such as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Taylor Hall, combined with bona fide top-six forwards, such as Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The Oilers, however, have finished top three in most goals allowed in the Western Conference in five of the last six years, with the year they made the postseason as the one exception. The Oilers were seldom able to maintain a successful identity because of their lackluster defense, despite having arguably the most talented top-six forward core in the NHL.
Several hockey analysts expected a team such as the Oilers, consisting of dynamic offensive playmakers, to outperform a team such as the Islanders, who had just lost their most dynamic offensive playmaker. Previews of the NHL 2018-19 season on Deadspin and ESPN were remarkably pessimistic when referencing the Islanders. After all, the Islanders had just lost the centerpiece of their identity, John Tavares, so there was uncertainty regarding their outlook for the season.
What hockey analysts may not have taken into account was the fact that the Islanders were not that successful with a team that was centered around a single superstar. During John Tavares’ nine years as an Islander, the team made the playoffs three times and the second round only once. John Tavares worked with three different Islanders coaches, none of whom seemed to find success on the Island. Although it seemed as if the loss of a bona fide superstar would impact the franchise negatively, the loss of John Tavares allowed the Islanders to refocus their identity on Barry Trotz’s system of efficient offense and elite defense.

During the 2018-19 season, the Islanders’ first season without John Tavares, the Islanders were approximately average in terms of scoring chances at 5-on-5, per Hockey Reference. That said, during 5-on-5 play, they were top ten in high danger scoring chances and shooting percentage. The Islanders did not dominate the league with scoring chances, in part because they did not have much offensive talent, but they were able to convert their scoring chances at a high rate, proving their discipline and efficiency.
On the defensive end of the ice, the Islanders truly excelled. Their .940% save percentage at 5-on-5 was the best in the NHL, despite allowing an average number of high-danger scoring chances. Their elite goaltending from Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss allowed the New York Islanders to go from giving up the most goals in the NHL during the 2017-18 season to giving up the fewest goals in the NHL during the 2018-19 season. The main difference between these two seasons was not the absence of John Tavares: it was the presence of Barry Trotz. The Islanders led the NHL in PDO, which measures the sum of a team’s save percentage and shooting percentage in 2018-19. Although PDO is often considered a measure of luck, the Washington Capitals finished fourth in PDO in 2017-18 and first in PDO in 2016-17, which were Trotz’s final two seasons in Washington. Therefore, PDO does not necessarily show that the Islanders were lucky; it shows that Barry Trotz makes the most of his team’s talent by increasing its offensive efficiency and defensive stability.
The Islanders continued to shock the world by finishing top five in the NHL in the 2018-19 regular season and then sweeping the Pittsburgh Penguins, a team with far more offensive talent but less offensive efficiency and defensive stability, in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. When John Tavares left for Toronto in 2018, it seemed unlikely that any analyst would have expected a top-five Regular Season finish and a first-round sweep for the New York Islanders, but that speaks more to the lack of understanding of the situation throughout the hockey community. Hopefully, after displaying the capabilities of a team with a structured identity, New York Islanders have debunked the myth around the NHL that star players are a necessity in constructing a successful franchise.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.