Compared to the majority of the past decade for the New York Islanders, the 2019-2020 team does not feature a single superstar and a supporting cast. Whereas the voters often award the Hart Trophy to a single player who plays a crucial offensive role on his team, Barry Trotz repeatedly emphasizes the importance of a two-way player. Furthermore, although no Islander this season will gain consideration for the Hart Trophy, there is plenty of value on this team that should not go unnoticed. I will proceed to nominate the three most valuable Islanders this season in my opinion and analyze their production in order to determine the 2019-2020 Islanders MVP.

Anthony Beauvillier

The Case For
The first and perhaps most surprising candidate is a guy who is not necessarily known for his offensive or defensive prowess: however, there is no forward on the Islanders who fits Trotz’s system better than Anthony Beauvillier. In arguably the six most important facets of a hockey game: even-strength offense, even-strength defense, the power-play, the penalty-kill, penalties taken, and penalties drawn, Beauvillier has been the only Islander this season who has produced at an above replacement-level in each of these categories, according to Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR). Beauvillier never lacks effort on either side of the ice, and his numbers portray that type of complete player. Whereas a large portion of the Islanders fan base may reasonably argue that Mathew Barzal should be a candidate for the Islanders MVP, Barzal, compared to Beauvillier, has had difficulty at times adjusting to the Trotz system, one that does not necessarily allow him to exert all of his energy on offense. In the graph below comparing Barzal and Beauvillier, you can see that Barzal has been below-average on defense as a whole, whereas Beauvillier proves to be above-average in both offensive and defensive categories. Moreover, Beauvillier has been an ideal player for Trotz’s system this season, and he has echoed Trotz’s two-way system onto the ice more than any other Islanders forward.

The Case Against
As evidenced above, Beauvillier does not excel in any offensive or defensive category, and his Time On Ice (TOI) is much lower than that of a first-line forward or defenseman. Additionally, Beauvillier’s production has been quite inconsistent, for he has gone on several multi-game skids without recording a point. There is undoubtedly more to Beauvillier’s game than point production, as there is for every NHL player, but an MVP’s production should be evident nearly every game. The Islanders’ biggest weakness this season has been lack of goal-scoring – for the most part, they have been a sound defensive team – and Beauvillier does not produce enough to help the offense significantly. Whereas Barzal drives the offense very frequently for the Islanders, Beauvillier has done so more moderately. Although Beauvillier is a great example of a hard-worker who has bought-in completely to a successful system, the value of his output is not extreme enough to guarantee his MVP consideration.

Ryan Pulock

The Case For
For many years, Ryan Pulock has been the Islanders’ top defenseman, a title that recognizes his value to the Islanders but not necessarily his value with respect to the top defensemen in the NHL. Currently, among all defensemen, Pulock ranks second in Goals Above Replacement (GAR), trailing only Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis. Among all skaters, Pulock ranks seventh, and among all players, he ranks ninth. To summarize, Pulock has been the ninth most productive player in the National Hockey League this season when accounting for production in many different aspects of the game. Pulock is effective on both the power play and the penalty kill, and he has recorded more than 125 minutes than any other Islanders skater this season. For the better half of the season, Pulock, along with Adam Pelech, has been used as a weapon to shut down opposing top offensive lines without sacrificing any of his own offensive prowess. While nearly everything about the New York Islanders 2019-20 season has been inconsistent, Pulock has been a constant bright spot, has a case for the Islanders’ MVP, and should continue to be a superstar for years to come.
The Case Against
Despite his elite Goals Above Replacement production, Pulock has provided convincing evidence that his statistics are due for serious regression. Whereas Pulock ranks second among defensemen in Goals Above Replacement, he has been below-average in Expected Goals For per 60 Minutes (xGF/60) at even strength, as shown in the graph below. Furthermore, it is very plausible that his inflated GAR has been a result of luck on the offensive end, which is due to balance out soon enough. One’s play must be evaluated based on his actual play, not the results that stemmed from it. Moreover, as Pulock’s contributions have, in reality, resulted in goals at a high rate, his production suggests that he has not performed as more than an average offensive defenseman. Pulock should not be evaluated based on factors that are out of his control. His even-strength offensive level of play has been below- average this season when all chance-based factors are removed. Additionally, Pulock’s Corsi For and Against per 60 Minutes, as shown in Figure 2, has been significantly below-average at even strength, which further proves that his excellent production on both sides of the ice has mostly resulted from luck, not Pulock’s skill.

Semyon Varlamov

The Case For
Semyon Varlamov has gone under the radar as one of the top goaltenders this season. While much of the Islanders fan base feels nostalgic for Robin Lehner’s tenure on the Islanders or excited for Ilya Sorokin’s Islanders career, Varlamov has established himself as a true number one goaltender. Trailing only Tuukka Rask and Connor Hellebuyck, Varlamov is third in the NHL in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and GAR. Varlamov has been strong during both even strength and special teams, and despite a few lackluster games, he has remained consistent for most of the year. He was a large reason the Islanders won ten games in a row and recorded a point in seventeen in a row. Whereas Rask and Hellebuyck will be at the top of most Vezina ballots, Varlamov does not appear to be in the conversation. However, when evaluating the impact of Varlamov in terms of Goals Above Replacement, especially considering the woeful production from goalies across the NHL, the Islanders fan base should acknowledge Varlamov’s first season on the Island as a massive success, which should warrant acknowledgment for the Islanders’ MVP for the season.
The Case Against
Despite Varlamov’s high WAR, he has not exceeded expectations with respect to his own situation. He has allowed 110 goals this season, and his Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 111.88. Moreover, he has performed just as he should be on the Islanders. He has been very solid this year, but to render him the Islanders’ MVP would indicate that his value has been greater than every other that of all other players, despite the similarity between his performance and his expected performance. Additionally, the backup goaltender on the Islanders, Thomas Greiss, has allowed only three more goals than expected, proving that his value is not far off from Varlamov’s. Additionally, twelve goalies in the NHL have played more games than Varlamov; compared to the rest of the league, Varlamov is not as responsible for his team’s defensive success as other goalies across the league are. For much of the year, Trotz rotated Greiss and Varlamov, so Varlamov’s lack of playing time compromised his value consistently.
So, who is the Islanders’ MVP?

The MVP: Semyon Varlamov

In order to truly determine which player has been the most valuable for the Islanders this season, I must ask, “what has led to the Islanders’ success this year?” The Islanders rank within the bottom eight in Goals Against per 60 Minutes (GA/60) and bottom six in Goals For per 60 Minutes (GF/60). Thus, the Islanders’ success has come from their defensive, not offensive, production, and that starts with the goaltender. In what has been an abnormally suboptimal season for several goaltenders in the NHL, Varlamov has kept the Islanders, with a lackluster offense, in the playoff hunt. Although he has not necessarily exceeded expectations, his high WAR shows that his role on the Islanders is very significant, as his production has provided almost three whole wins above a replacement-level goalie. Pulock did not win this award because it seems as if the main contributor to his production this season has been luck, and no player should be evaluated based on uncontrolled variables. Although Beauvillier has displayed no glaring weakness in his game, his lack of excellence prevents him from earning Most Valuable Player; instead, he serves as one of the more valuable players on the team who perfectly fits Trotz’s system. Ultimately, on a team that has relied on its goaltending ever since the departure of John Tavares, Varlamov has carried the Islanders to the playoff hunt more than any other player, which is why he should be considered for the Islanders’ MVP.
All statistics featured in this article are from Evolving Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.