With the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery coming to a close, we still do not know who will be given the first overall pick. A “placeholder” team won the draft lottery, leaving fans of rebuilding teams such as the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators very disappointed. The eight losers of the qualifying round will all have a 12.5% chance of getting the first overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, projected to be Alexis Lafrenière.

Lafrenière has posted insane numbers for the Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL, with 217 points in 113 games over the last two seasons. In short, he has absolutely dominated all competition at the junior level.
Fans of all sixteen teams participating in the Qualifying Round have had different opinions, whether they would rather see their team go for a deep playoff push this season or to intentionally lose in the qualifiers to have a chance at Lafrenière. The question is- is it really worth losing in the qualifiers to have a low chance of getting Lafrenière?

Nothing is guaranteed.

Alexis Lafrenière would likely be a glorious fit for all of the teams participating. Looking at it from the Islanders’ perspective, most fans agree the team is in desperate need of signing a top winger to play alongside Mathew Barzal.

However, despite Lafrenière’s dominance in the QMJHL, that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be a top player in the NHL. While it is highly unlikely as Lafrenière has the skillset and style to be a dominant player in the National Hockey League, the same has been said historically for many players.

While it is way too early to tell how their careers will play out, Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko were supposed to be dominant players from the get-go, but have been quite underwhelming. While they both will likely have excellent careers, it is unrealistic to expect that every top prospect will automatically become a top player in the league immediately.

You may argue it is too early to tell enough about Hughes and Kakko, and you would be right. Players like Nail Yakupov and Alexandre Daigle were both incredibly overhyped and were #1 picks in their respective draft years. Both only played a few seasons in the NHL and struggled to produce.

While I am not suggesting Lafrenière will be a bust even in the slightest bit, nothing is ever guaranteed with prospects. Sacrificing playoff hockey for any prospect is quite the gamble.

Professional athletes play to win.

While some fans may think “tanking” in the qualifiers may be beneficial, the simple reality is that professional athletes play to win.
Have teams in all sports tanked before? Of course, they have. For example, the Cincinnati Bengals tanked for quarterback Joe Burrow from Louisiana State University this past season.

We’ve even seen it in hockey. Lots of fans believe that the Pittsburgh Penguins tanked for Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby, two generational talents. That, however, was in the regular season. Purposely losing for any reason in the playoffs, where you have a chance to win a championship has never been done before and probably never will. It sounds insane because it is.

The “bottom” teams in this year’s postseason have a better chance to win a championship now than ever, due to the insanity of the situation. We don’t know what lineups, contracts, and much more will look like. With everything up in the air, a team like the Islanders are actually bound to succeed. With rusty offenses facing a team that focuses on the defensive side of the game, this puts the Islanders at an advantage.
Regardless, in a situation where a team can win a championship, even if it is highly unlikely, pro athletes will always give it their all and try to win. It is the right mentality to have and anything is possible.

Playing with Numbers

People argue that a team like the Islanders have more of a chance statistically to get Alexis Lafrenière than win a Stanley Cup. This is true, but how reliable are playoff odds in actuality?

According to these same “odds”, the Blue Jackets almost had no chance of beating the Lightning in the playoffs last year, the Sharks had almost no chance of coming back in Game 7 against Vegas, and many more. Playing with odds is far less important than what is actually happening. Historically, odds to win have been useless and inaccurate, especially in such an unpredictable sport.

With a loss in the Qualifying Round, each team would only have a 12.5% chance of getting the first overall pick anyway. Is it worth it to sacrifice a chance to win the Cup, maintain a winner’s mentality, and partake in a historic playoff for a slim chance of getting a player in Alexis Lafrenière, who has never played an NHL game? Absolutely not. All 24 teams will come ready and will come to win. The fans should feel the same.

John Smark