One of the main flaws in modern analysis of players is the tendency to neglect or to belittle defensive impact. It is easy to find statistics that exhibit the offensive impact of Patrick Kane or Kyle Connor, such as goals or points, but quantifying defensive impact is a far more challenging task. Thus, it is our mission not to neglect defensive impact but instead to reward it by handing out the Selke Trophy. The Selke Trophy is awarded to the most effective forward on the defensive end of the ice, so here are the forwards whose defensive impact is most recognized by the voters, followed by the forwards whose defensive impact is most recognized by us.

The NHL’s Finalists: Patrice Bergeron, Sean Couturier, Ryan O’Reilly

Who Will Win:
The Selke Trophy appears to be arguably the most difficult award for the voters to hand out, so by a rule of thumb, the voters often resort to similar candidates each year. We agree that it is important that the forward exhibits offensive prowess, but the extent to which the voters prioritize offensive impact is a bit extreme. In fact, the last year in which the Selke Trophy winner did not score 20 goals was 1994-95. Thus, it is not surprising to see extremely strong offensive players become finalists yet again. Patrice Bergeron’s line has never been this dominant, he kills penalties very well, and his team won the Presidents’ Trophy, so voters may feel as if they have more of a reason to vote for Bergeron this year than in any other year. When comfort is factored in as a key component of the voting system, Bergeron’s case becomes even stronger, as he has already won this award four times. While Couturier and O’Reilly both put together very strong defensive campaigns, we expect this award to go to the player who has been notorious for his two-way efforts for a decade, Patrice Bergeron.

Who Should Win the Selke Trophy:

Aidan’s Finalists: Blake Coleman, Valeri Nichushkin, Ryan O’Reilly
Aidan’s Winner: Blake Coleman
There are a plethora of solid defensive forwards in the NHL right now, rendering this choice a rather difficult one. What does it mean to excel in defensive aspects of the game? Well, although this is not an award for the best two-way forward, I strongly believe that the forward should carry some of the load on the offensive end as well. It is more impressive to me if a forward excels on the defensive end while also prioritizing offensive production than if a forward evidently prioritizes predominantly the defensive end. For that reason, my choice for the Selke Trophy is Blake Coleman, who played for both the New Jersey Devils and the Tampa Bay Lightning this season.
Coleman has been among the league’s strongest defensive forwards at even strength, as he ranks fourth among forwards in Expected Even-Strength Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xEVD). That said, where he really separates himself from other strong defensive forwards is on the penalty-kill. Defensive prowess at even-strength requires a different skillset than defensive prowess on the penalty-kill, but Coleman has portrayed both skillsets this season. In fact, Coleman is the only forward in the NHL whose xEVD is above 3.0 while having an Expected Shorthanded Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xSHD) of at least 0.5. He has killed penalties for both the Devils and the Lightning, and evidently, he has been very productive shorthanded, which is even more impressive given his mid-season transition from one team to another. On top of this, Coleman has been a bona fide top-six offensive forward for both teams this season, which ultimately moves the needle towards Coleman in terms of my choice for the winner of the Selke Trophy.

To say the least, this was not an easy decision, especially because of the defensive season that Ryan O’Reilly has put together. O’Reilly has been one of the few forwards who has been more effective than Coleman defensively at even-strength this season. Additionally, he has been quite effective offensively this season, arguably more effective than Coleman due to O’Reilly’s significant usage on the power play. However, while O’Reilly does kill penalties, he has been one of the worst penalty killers among forwards this season, ranking in the bottom ten in xSHD. For this reason, he fell behind Coleman on my rankings for the Selke Trophy.
Valeri Nichushkin, who is finally gaining recognition for his outstanding defensive impact around the hockey community, has a strong case for the Selke Trophy as well. Overall, he has had the greatest defensive impact among forwards this year in terms of both Expected Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xDef) and Defensive Goals Above Replacement (Def). Just for that reason, he has justifiably asserted himself into Selke Trophy discussions. However, two main flaws in his case for the award hold him back. First, he does not kill penalties, and shorthanded defense is a vital part of the game. Second, he has played several fewer minutes than the other candidates, which suggests that he is not seen by the Colorado Avalanche as a two-way forward; rather, he is seen predominantly as a defensive asset. Whereas forwards such as Coleman and O’Reilly clearly focus their attention on both ends of the ice, Nichushkin, on an offensively dominant team, appears to prioritize defensive impact, which makes his defensive production slightly less impressive.
Aside from my three finalists, four other forwards warranted significant consideration for this award. Anthony Cirelli, Sean Couturier, Phillip Danault, and Zach Aston-Reese each have put together phenomenal defensive seasons, and each of them has a strong case to win this award. The one case I do want to debunk is the case for Patrice Bergeron. Although Bergeron was arguably the best defensive forward in hockey for quite a few years at the beginning of the 2010s, he no longer has the same defensive impact as he used to. Bergeron is at the point in his career where the majority of his value comes on the offensive end, especially on the power play. Bergeron is still a solid penalty-killer, but his xEVD is far behind each of the seven aforementioned forwards, which is why I do not believe he warrants significant consideration for the Selke Trophy this season.

Kush’s Finalists: Sean Couturier, Valeri Nichushkin, Ryan O’Reilly
Kush’s Winner: Ryan O’Reilly
Defensive prowess is extremely important and often undervalued in the analysis of any given player. The Selke Trophy rewards a specific NHL forward who excels in the defensive aspect of the game, and under those guidelines, I have chosen Ryan O’Reilly as the recipient. At even strength, O’Reilly was on the ice for 1054.6 minutes during the season, and he was a defensive powerhouse, leading all skaters in Corsi Against (CA), which combines the value of blocks, shots, shots on goal, and missed shots. Also, O’Reilly was a top-three forward in Expected Goals Against (xGA) at even strength, which is especially significant given that the other two forwards, Valeri Nichushkin and Zach Aston-Reese, are more defensively minded and are not as impactful on both sides of the rink. It is more significant that a forward is able to produce defensively while also excelling on offense than that a forward is are solely a defensive asset. O’Reilly is an elite offensive winger on the St. Louis Blues, but also is strong defensively, which is the determining factor in my decision. 

Sean Couturier had a fantastic season and proved to be one of the most underrated skaters this year. Although I value both offensive and defensive metrics in my decision, and Couturier had a better offensive year than O’Reilly, O’Reilly had a more significant impact defensively than Couturier. Couturier was second among all forwards in CA, a statistic in which O’Reilly paced all forwards, and Couturier was a not a top 70 forward in xGA at even strength, whereas O’Reilly was a top-three forward in this statistic. As both players played more than 1000 minutes on ice, it came down to a couple of convincing statistics that showed O’Reilly’s significant defensive contribution.
My other finalist, Nichushkin, is a more defensively-minded forward who was extremely successful this past season. Leading all forwards in both xGA and Goals Against (GA) at even strength, Nichushkin has a strong case to win the Selke Trophy. As mentioned before, however, offensive impact must be taken into consideration, and for that reason, Nichushkin is third on my list. Nichushkin has around 200 fewer minutes than both Couturier and O’Reilly and rarely is on the power play, which proves that he is more of a defensive asset in Colorado. As Couturier and O’Reilly have a significant impact on both ends of the ice, Nichushkin proves to be a less impactful offensive forward. 

Other plausible candidates for the award include Zach Aston-Reese, Jaden Schwartz, and Blake Coleman. All candidates are strong defensively, and Blake Coleman stands out as my clear-cut fourth candidate, as he excels while shorthanded as well as while at even-strength.
It is very rare that one can categorize the entire set of players that we considered using one word that is not synonymous with “great,” but it is clear that each forward who deserves recognition for defensive impact is underrated by the mainstream media. Forwards such as Valeri Nichushkin and Zach Aston-Reese, deserve significant praise for their defensive efforts, and forwards such as Ryan O’Reilly and Sean Couturier deserve significant praise for their two-way defensive efforts. Altogether, this should be an interesting race, even as several defensive superstars continue to fly under the radar.
This article was written in collaboration with Kush Malhotra
All stats are from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise indicated

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.