Hockey is back, and it’s better than ever. After more than four months of waiting, we were fortunate enough to witness a phenomenal qualifying round, which featured one sweep, one Game 5, and two fantastic round-robins. There were quite a few upsets, as well; both 12 seeds remain in contention for the Stanley Cup, and both 1 seeds in the round-robin dropped to the 4 seed in their respective conferences. Anything can happen in a seven-game series, but nonetheless, here are my predictions for the outcome of each series in the first round of the NHL Playoffs.

(1) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens

The Philadelphia Flyers, arguably the most impressive team in the postseason thus far, face a somewhat surprisingly difficult challenge in the first round against the Montreal Canadiens. This series features the two top goaltenders ) in the playoffs so far in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), one of whom has years of playoff experience while the other made his postseason debut just last week. Although I expect the goaltending impact to be comparable, all other aspects of the game, especially special teams, should favor the Flyers heavily. The hottest team in hockey should not face too much turbulence in the Stanley Cup’s first round.
Prediction: Flyers in 5

(2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (7)  Columbus Blue Jackets

This is what we all have been waiting for: a rematch of the most improbable hockey upset of this millennium. Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, however, they likely will not look like the same team as last season. Although they have sufficed thus far, the Blue Jackets, now without their top offensive player and goaltender from last season, likely will experience difficulty climbing the same metaphorical mountain twice. Moreover, it takes more than sufficient play to upset the Tampa Bay Lightning two seasons in a row, and the Blue Jackets, possessing the second-lowest Even-Strength Offensive Goals Above Replacement (EVO GAR) among teams in the 24-team playoffs, lack the offensive upside to overcome this obstacle. Thus, I expect the Blue Jackets to put up a fight but ultimately to fall short against a holistically elite Tampa Bay Lightning squad.
Prediction: Lightning in 6

(3) Washington Capitals vs. (6) New York Islanders

This Metropolitan Division showdown should not disappoint, as Barry Trotz seeks to defeat his former team, with which he won a Stanley Cup. Unfortunately for the Capitals, they will play without Ilya Samsonov, prompting them to start Braden Holtby, a goaltender who struggled mightily this season. Although Holtby was far better in the three-game round-robin than he was during the regular season, he still poses as a weakness on an otherwise strong team. Trotz will look to exploit this weakness, and as long as the Islanders are scoring at a respectable rate, they lack a weakness that the Capitals can exploit in return. Having ranked among the elite defensive teams this season, the Islanders likely will prevent the Capitals from scoring enough goals to give Holtby much of a cushion with which to work. The Capitals certainly have offensive upside, having ranked within the top-three teams in EVO GAR in the regular season, but they can ill afford to make many mistakes in this series. Primarily because the Capitals do not have a goaltender who can shut out the top offensive lines on the Islanders, I expect the Islanders to capitalize on their opportunities, advancing them to the second round.
Prediction: Islanders in 6

(4) Boston Bruins vs. (5) Carolina Hurricanes

Coming into the postseason, I would have argued that there is no way the Boston Bruins, such a dominant team, could lose to the Carolina Hurricanes. However, since the very first game of the postseason, everything has gone right for Carolina and everything has gone wrong for Boston. Not only did the Hurricanes sweep the Rangers, but the Hurricanes were the only team to sweep its qualifying-round series, and they did it without their best player, Dougie Hamilton. Now, Hamilton, having finished the regular season among the top-five defensemen in Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) despite playing only 47 games, has a good chance to play in this series, the Bruins are going to have to respond by going from playing among the worst teams in the league to playing among the best teams in the league very quickly. Unfortunately, even for elite teams such as the Bruins, this is a difficult transition to make against a team that seldom makes mistakes. Carolina should continue their hot streak, taking the first few games of the series and not looking back.
Prediction: Hurricanes in 7

(1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. (8) Chicago Blackhawks

Simply put, these two teams are not on the same level. The Golden Knights are a complete team, excelling in every aspect of the game, except for the penalty kill, whereas the Blackhawks excel only at goaltending, the most unpredictable element of a hockey team. Any team’s best chance to defeat the Golden Knights would be to maximize its power-play opportunities, but unfortunately, the Blackhawks have the worst power play among all teams in the 24-team playoffs in terms of Power-Play Offensive Goals Above Replacement (PPO GAR). The only significant chance the Blackhawks have of outplaying the Golden Knights in this series would come if Vegas starts Marc-Andre Fleury, a goaltender who has played very poorly this season. Regardless, Vegas is the far better team, so this should not be much of a difficult task for them.
Prediction: Golden Knights in 5

(2) Colorado Avalanche vs. (7) Arizona Coyotes

The Colorado Avalanche are nothing short of phenomenal, having finished second in the Western Conference in regular-season points; Darcy Kuemper is nothing short of phenomenal, having finished second in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in the regular season despite playing only 29 games. The main difference between the two teams is that Colorado’s skaters are among the league’s best, whereas Arizona’s goaltender is among the league’s best. The issue for Arizona is goaltending production is far more inconsistent than skater production, so there will certainly be games in which Philipp Grubauer outperforms Kuemper. The Avalanche are one of the most talented teams in the league, and although Kuemper gives Arizona upside, the Avalanche should pose as far too steep of a mountain to climb. Kuemper should steal a few games for the Coyotes, but the Avalanche should emerge victorious in the end.
Prediction: Avalanche in 6

(3) Dallas Stars vs. (6) Calgary Flames

The Dallas Stars were not very impressive in the round-robin, but they were capable of pulling off the win against the St. Louis Blues, which granted them the Calgary Flames as a first-round opponent. Unfortunately for the Stars, the Flames are an extremely well-rounded team with no true weakness; almost every aspect of their game is approximately league-average. The Stars, on the other hand, ranked last among all teams in the 24-team playoffs in EVO during the regular season, which poses a glaring weakness that the Flames can exploit. The Flames should use their deep defensive unit to minimize the quality and quantity of the Stars’ opportunity, and ultimately, the Stars should lack enough offensive weapons to overpower the Flames’ deep defense. This series certainly should not be the highest-scoring series, and the Flames should limit the Stars’ opportunities enough to send themselves to the next round.
Prediction: Flames in 6

(4) St. Louis Blues vs. (5) Vancouver Canucks

The reigning Stanley Cup Champions struggled in the round-robin, but the St. Louis Blues should benefit from positive regression after a short mental break. Having ranked above the median team in Goals Above Replacement (GAR) in even-strength offense, even-strength defense, power-play offense, shorthanded defense, and goaltending, the Blues should return to their two-way game in the first round. The Canucks played extremely well in their series against the Minnesota Wild, but the Canucks rely far too much on goaltending to be their most productive aspect of the game. Given how inconsistent and unpredictable goaltenders are, goaltending is a difficult aspect of the game to rely on in a seven-game series. Jacob Markstrom should steal the show in a few games, but the Blues should emerge victorious in what realistically could be the closest series of the first round.
Prediction: Blues in 7

Despite having no fans at each game, it truly feels as if the players have brought the same spark to the postseason that they do every season, and this season, we even were able to see an additional round. Some teams adjusted quickly to the new circumstances, whereas other teams are looking for their first win in the bubble. Hockey is as unpredictable as any sport, but altogether, the Stanley Cup Playoffs first round will be an exciting moment for these 16 teams as they embark on a journey to win the most coveted trophy in all of sports.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.