This is hockey. Yes, the Colorado Avalanche are eliminated. Yes, the Boston Bruins are eliminated. Yes, the Pittsburgh Penguins are eliminated. Yes, the Edmonton Oilers are eliminated. The phrase “defense wins championships” is evidently valid now more than seemingly ever before. The Dallas Stars, the New York Islanders, the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Vegas Golden Knights are extremely difficult teams on which to score, which should spark an emphasis on structure in the conference finals. Ultimately, only two teams will move on. Let’s analyze both Conference Finals matchups to determine which teams likely will earn the opportunity to play for the Stanley Cup.

Eastern Conference Finals: (2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (6) New York Islanders

On paper, these two teams may not seem very similar, but this paper may be misleading. The Tampa Bay Lightning are a powerhouse from top to bottom. Their third forward line is one of the best in the league, and each one of their top-two forward lines is centered by a phenomenal two-way player in either Brayden Point or Anthony Cirelli. Led by former Norris Trophy-winner Victor Hedman, the defense of the Tampa Bay Lightning is superb and deep as well. The number of high-impact players on the Lightning is astounding, and it certainly makes head coach Jon Cooper’s job much easier.

For the Islanders, although scoring had been the Achilles heel of the team ever since they lost their former captain, John Tavares, they have been an excellent offensive team thus far in the postseason. The Islanders have scored at least two goals in every game in the postseason thus far, and they have scored at least three goals in eight consecutive games. Simply put, scoring is not an issue for the Islanders any more. What makes their scoring even more impressive is the reality that it comes from all four lines and potentially all three defense pairings. An offensively and defensively sound team, the Islanders pose as a true threat to the Lightning in this series.

Altogether, I am picking the Islanders to emerge victorious in seven games, and here is why. Thus far this postseason, the Islanders have been the better team in terms of Expected Goals Differential (xG+/-) in every single game except for in two of them, one against the Florida Panthers and one against the Washington Capitals. After the Islanders outplayed the Philadelphia Flyers in every game in their seven-game series, they certainly are capable of defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team that had a negative xG+/- in six of its thirteen postseason games. Additionally, the goaltending situation is very similar between the two teams in terms of their starting goaltenders, but the Islanders can start Thomas Greiss, a goaltender who has been much better than both Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilveskiy and Islanders goaltender Semyon Varlamov in his limited playing time this postseason. In terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), Greiss has had zero negative-impact games of his three games played, whereas Vasilveskiy has had five negative-impact games of his thirteen games played. With Greiss, the Islanders’ goaltending is outproducing the Lightning’s goaltending, and if head coach Barry Trotz rolls with him, expect the Eastern Conference Finals to lean in favor of the Islanders, and for them to earn a spot in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Western Conference Finals: (1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. (3) Dallas Stars

There is no doubt that the Vegas Golden Knights are among the best teams in the NHL, but there is reasonable doubt that the Dallas Stars fall into the same category. The Golden Knights have played fifteen games in the postseason thus far and have had a negative xG+/- in two of them. In other words, they have outplayed their opponent in thirteen of the fifteen games. If it was not for Vancouver Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko, the series between the Golden Knights and the Canucks likely would have been far more lopsided than the seven-game series we saw in reality.

The Stars, on the other hand, have faced far more expected turbulence to get to this point. Of their fifteen postseason games thus far, eight of them have seen the Stars fall into the negatives in xG+/-. In fact, their cumulative xG+/- this postseason is -1.81, which is extremely concerning for this team. The Stars may have gotten past the injury-riddled Colorado Avalanche, but do they have the production to get past the red-hot Golden Knights? Their expected goals differential certainly serves as a warning that they do not have this production.

Altogether, I am picking the Vegas Golden Knights to take this series in five games. Not only have the Golden Knights excelled in almost every game they have played in the bubble, but they also have ridden elite goaltending, primarily from Robin Lehner. Lehner ranks sixth among goaltenders in GSAx, whereas Stars goaltender Anton Khudobin ranks fifteenth. The Golden Knights are a far better team than the Stars in terms of skaters, and their goaltending only helps their case to win the series. Although their offense broke out against the Avalanche, the Stars ranked 30th among all NHL teams in Even-Strength Offensive Goals Above Replacement (EVO GAR) in the regular season. The Stars have yet to exhibit sustained offensive production, and we saw what happened when the Canucks’ offense struggled in the second round. The Golden Knights have the potential to shut out Dallas’ offense in any game with their structured defense and elite goaltending. The Stars could outplay the Golden Knights in a game or two, but expect the Golden Knights to win this series with relative ease.

Altogether, what an exciting conference final this will be. Despite an omnipresent emphasis on structure, each team has offensive upside that could be on display in the conference finals. It remains to be seen which teams come out of the Conference Finals victorious and play for the Stanley Cup, but rest assured that we, as hockey fans, are treated to four wonderful options.

*All stats are from Evolving-Hockey

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.