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2020 Stanley Cup Analytical Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals - Drive4Five
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2020 Stanley Cup Analytical Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals

2020 Stanley Cup Analytical Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals
John Smark Editorials

The Stanley Cup Final is finally here! Although quite unexpected the Dallas Stars upset the Vegas Golden Knights in a quick five-game series and look to take on the dangerous Tampa Bay Lightning. Both teams have had great goaltending throughout the playoffs and have star defensemen that led them through the way. Here is my prediction for the Stanley Cup Final!

 

Dallas Stars (3) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (1)

It is extremely difficult to find a flaw in the Tampa Bay Lightning. In the past season, they were top two in Goals For per 60 (GF/60) and top 6 in Goals Against per 60 (GA/60) on even strength, and on the power play they were top 7 in goals for per 60 (GF/60). Even against the extremely underrated New York Islanders defense, the Lightning were dominant, and the biggest highlight was Andrei Vasilevskiy. Although he was been a Vezina candidate for the past two seasons, he really hasn’t been that good. Wins are not a good statistic in valuing a single player to look at as it is more of a team stat and Vasilevskiy led the league with 35. Besides for that, Vasilevskiy was not even top 65 in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), where other nominees are first and sixth. 

The Dallas Stars have been the most surprising teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. From Joel Kiviranta’s stellar performance to Anton Khudobin’s absolute dominance, they have found a way and look to bring a cup back home. The sole edge that I see for them is goaltending. Khudobin had a fantastic regular season-saving 6.15 goals above expected which ranks top 10 in the league. Besides that, their offense was lacking in the regular season where they had 1.96 goals for per 60 which ranks second to last in the league. With dominant players in Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen, and Alexander Radulov, it would be very exciting to see them upset one of the best teams in the league. 

With all of the firepower the Lightning have, I do not see them losing to the Stars. The stars have had a very surprising postseason upsetting top teams including the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche, but I do believe the Lightning have what it takes to defeat the Stars.

Prediction: The Tampa Bay Lightning defeat the Dallas Stars in 6 games. 

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