At one point, it seemed as if the problem had disappeared. The New York Islanders, although notorious at times for their lack of offense, began to score goals frequently and consistently. In fact, the Islanders’ biggest win of the season, their 4-0 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers in the seventh game of a hard-fought series, marked the eighth straight game in which they scored at least three goals. Given that six of those games were played against one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, Carter Hart, the Islanders appeared to have found their scoring touch.

Nonetheless, their scoring woes returned in the Conference Finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning. In the six-game series, the Islanders put up at least three goals in only one game. The same issues that plagued them the year before against the Carolina Hurricanes plagued them this year against the Lightning. Their inability to put the puck in the back of the net at a respectable rate sent them home before the Stanley Cup Finals. And this loss prompts the seemingly perennial question: should the Islanders acquire a goal-scorer?

This offseason, the two most promising goal-scorers available are Winnipeg Jets forward Patrik Laine and soon-to-be free agent forward Mike Hoffman. Both players are known to excel in the offensive zone with a certain goal-scoring touch that evokes fear in opposing goaltenders. They undoubtedly would make a significant impact on the Islanders offensively. That said, it is very reasonable to ask, “are they worth it?”

Let’s start with Laine. After peaking in 2018-19, Laine saw his Wins Above Replacement fall from 2.7 to 1.4 in 2019-20, which shows he still can be effective even in his down seasons. However, Laine’s value is primarily concentrated in the offensive zone. In each of Laine’s four seasons, his Offensive Goals Above Replacement (Off) has been positive, and his Defensive Goals Above Replacement (Def) has been negative. Laine’s Shooting Talent Above Average in 2019-20 ranks eighth among all players in the NHL according to MoneyPuck, so he could be particularly useful on the power play, but it is reasonable to question the extent to which he fits Barry Trotz’s structured system.

Similarly, Hoffman, a player whose scoring ability was evident even in such a short series between the Florida Panthers and the New York Islanders, presents a much more beneficial impact in the offensive zone than in the defensive zone. In fact, just like Laine, Hoffman has had a positive Off in each of the past four seasons and a negative Def in each of the past four seasons. In 2019-20, however, Hoffman saw his WAR drop to a career-worst -0.1. Despite possessing the 26th-highest Shooting Talent Above Average in 2019-20, according to MoneyPuck, Hoffman has not earned a big contract given his below-replacement-level impact last season.

Both Laine and Hoffman present clear offensive upside, but both players come with flaws as well, particularly on the defensive end of the ice. Given the success of Trotz’s system, it seems illogical to detract from it. Nonetheless, scoring has been arguably the Islanders’ biggest weakness since John Tavares signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs, thus prompting an interesting debate.

A factor that I have yet to address, despite its importance, is money. Three of the best players on the team, Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock, and Devon Toews, are restricted free agents this offseason, and Islanders General Manager Lou Lamoriello likely will prioritize bringing back all three players. Nonetheless, this task will be extremely difficult to accomplish given the Islanders’ lack of cap space. If all three players return to the Islanders, they likely will not have any money left to sign Hoffman or to acquire Laine unless they can find a heavy contract to dump.

I certainly believe that Hoffman will receive more money than his WAR suggests his value is, so it would be illogical of the Islanders to spend a significant amount of money on him. Laine, on the other hand, serves as a far more interesting target because of his potential. After being drafted second overall in 2016, Laine has drawn comparisons to Alex Ovechkin, among other prominent goal-scorers. It is certainly reasonable to conclude that Laine still has untapped potential, potential that can be brought out by Barry Trotz. If the Islanders can make space for Laine, he certainly can be worth the money. Will he be worth the money? We may never find out.

After going to the Conference Finals for the first time in 27 years, the New York Islanders certainly have a bright future. They undoubtedly have the pieces to make another run at the Stanley Cup, but the Islanders’ main focus should be to bring these pieces back for the future. In terms of potential acquisitions, the Islanders should stay away from Hoffman, but they logically could make a run at acquiring Laine, a player who would add significant value to their top forward line. It remains to be seen what Lamoriello does for the Islanders, but one thing is certain. Regardless of their acquisitions, Laine, Hoffman, others, or none at all, the Islanders are better than they have been in a very long time.

*All Statistics are from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise indicated

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.