The wonderful, albeit brief, Devon Toews era on Long Island has come to an end. But as one proverbial door closes, another one opens, which means that the future of the Islanders defense steps in, and the Noah Dobson era on Long Island has begun!

A star prospect, Dobson had a very solid rookie season for the Islanders, not necessarily exceeding expectations but certainly not falling short of them. Per Evolving-Hockey, in terms of Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR), Dobson was a positive-impact player in his 34 games played. Additionally, he had a positive impact both offensively and defensively, with 0.6 Expected Offensive Goals Above Replacement (xOff) and 1.0 Expected Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xDef). Even in his 20-year-old season, Dobson put his two-way abilities on display.

While xGAR is a precise measurement of performance in one’s offensive zone or defensive zone, Dobson has portrayed his prowess in transition as well. In an era in which analytics have portrayed the importance of carrying the puck into the offensive zone instead of dumping it in, Dobson has embraced his role as a puck-carrier more than almost any other defenseman on the Islanders. Per Corey Sznajder’s transition data, in 2019-20, Dobson (47.8%) carried the puck into the offensive zone at a higher rate than any other defenseman except for Nick Leddy (51.4%). Given that Toews (40.8%) ranked third last year, and the future of Leddy is relatively uncertain, Dobson’s style of play in transition can be a valuable asset for the Islanders not just in 2020-21 but also in several years to come.

Another sign of encouragement is the environment in which Dobson can grow. Of all of Dobson’s potential defense partners, Leddy presents as the most favorable option, and the impact on the team when Leddy and Dobson played together is profound. Per HockeyViz’s Environment Distiller, the Islanders’ Expected Goals per 60 Minutes (xG/60) on the offensive end of the ice increased by 39% when the two defenemsen were on the ice together. Additionally, their xG/60 on the defensive end of the ice decreased by 36%, upholding the lockdown defensive structure that Barry Trotz preaches. Not only can Dobson be a high-impact player, but he can also bring out the best in Leddy, a player whose value has decreased significantly leading up to this season.

However, Dobson did possess one notable flaw in his rookie season: his shot. According to MoneyPuck, Dobson’s Shooting Talent Above Average was 0.0%, indicating that his shot was average in the 2019-20 season. While “average” is not necessarily indicative of a flaw, Dobson likely needs to improve his shot if he is going to turn into the workhorse defenseman on both ends of the ice of which he seems capable. Especially as a defenseman who may replace Devon Toews on the second power-play unit, Dobson could hold the Islanders back if he cannot improve his shot.

Nonetheless, Dobson was just a rookie last season, so it is fair to cut him some slack. Although his shot was average, Dobson was a valuable player for the Islanders last season, so valuable that the team felt comfortable dealing Toews to the Colorado Avalanche and giving Dobson more minutes. Additionally, Dobson already has an Eastern Conference Finals game under his belt, an experience that few players of his age receive.

In reality, we don’t know exactly how Dobson will play this season. But at the very least, he is a player who almost definitely will exceed his contract value. With a cap hit less than $1 million, Dobson should comfortably outperform his contract, providing the Islanders with value that they desperately need. While several of their toughest competitors improved this season, the Islanders may not see the same improvement this season–that is, unless rookie goaltender Ilya Sorokin breaks out this season. Altogether, the future is bright for Noah Dobson should present himself as a valuable asset to the team as a workhorse defenseman who eats up big minutes, scores big goals, and has a significant positive impact on this team for years to come.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.