Analytics Corner: Top 20 Defensemen in the NHL
After NHL Network released its list of the top-20 defenseman in the National Hockey League (NHL), writer Kush Malhotra and I decided to create our own list. Using advanced statistics, we made our way through hundreds of defensemen, selecting the 20 best. Without further ado, here is our list of the top-20 defensemen in the NHL.
- Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks
The future is bright for Quinn Hughes. That said, his game in 2019-20 NHL season had its holes, most notably on the defensive end. Hughes, NHL Network’s 11th best defenseman, ranked within the top-20 defensemen in Expected Offensive Goals Above Replacement (xOff), but he ranked outside of the top-100 defensemen in Expected Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xDef). Hughes has the potential to win the Norris Trophy multiple times, but as of now, his defense is the primary reason he is not any higher on this list.
- Jeff Petry, Montreal Canadiens
A defenseman who flies under the radar, Jeff Petry quietly finished eighth among defensemen in Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR). Although he does not put up flashy point totals, he has become one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL and his impact on the Montreal Canadiens is profound. Unranked by NHL Network, Petry may not receive a ton of recognition, but the numbers certainly back up his ranking on our list.
- Jake Muzzin, Toronto Maple Leafs
In a woeful defensive season by the Toronto Maple Leafs, Jake Muzzin was the bright spot. Muzzin is another defenseman who flies under radar, but make no mistake, he turned in an excellent season on both ends of the ice in the 2019-20 season, providing a two-way impact that the Maple Leafs have needed badly for years. Ranking third in xGAR on the Maple Leafs, Muzzin was one of the main reasons they were so competitive, and he should be one of the main reasons they stay competitive. He unsurprisingly went unranked on NHL Network’s list, but nonetheless, he proved to be a star in one of the biggest hockey cities in the world.
- Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs
In the very same city, Morgan Rielly has shined in the past. However, last season told a slightly different story. Granted, Rielly missed several games with a broken foot, but even when he played, he did not perform at his usual level. In our opinions, Rielly was the best defenseman in the NHL in the 2018-19 season, so it was extremely disappointing to see his xGAR drop from 20.7 to 0.4. Because of his inconsistent play over the past two years, Rielly is difficult to rank. We believe that NHL Network ranked Rielly fairly at number 20, but for us, his phenomenal performance in the 2018-19 season is too excellent to ignore. Thus, he comes in at number 17 on our list.
- Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars
The third overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, Miro Heiskanen was dominant in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, leading the Dallas Stars to the Stanley Cup Finals. However, his xGAR decreased from 13.5 in 2018-19 to 5.8 in 2019-20 primarily because of a drop off of 9.6 in xOff. Heiskanen seemed to reestablish his offensive potential in the postseason, but we must acknowledge the relatively small sample size of the postseason, even though the Stars made the Stanley Cup Final. NHL Network is a bit more optimistic than we are, ranking Heiskanen at number 10, but the optimism is understandable; Heiskanen is one of the top young talents in the NHL today.
- Adam Fox, New York Rangers
To many, Adam Fox is just another young defenseman in the NHL. To us, Fox is a Calder Trophy Snub, perhaps the most underrated player in the NHL and most importantly, a star. Whereas Calder Trophy headlines last season focused on Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, Fox put up better numbers than both players. In fact, Fox ranked sixth in the NHL in xGAR last season, ahead of the likes of Makar and Hughes. The glaring issue with ranking Fox any higher than this is sample size — we do not know the extent to which he will regress. Nonetheless, his excellent season should not be ignored, even though NHL Network ignored it.
- Mattias Ekholm, Nashville Predators
Another under appreciated defenseman, Mattias Ekholm has been remarkably good over the past few years. His peak season was in the 2017-18 season, finishing second among all defensemen in xGAR, and his production, though not as great in the previous season, has remained at a high level. NHL Network understandably ranked two of his teammates on the list, but they failed to acknowledge the exceptional production of a third Nashville Predator, leaving him unranked. Expectations for Ekholm in the upcoming 2020-21 season can vary, but one thing is certain: Ekholm has become an elite defenseman in the NHL.
- Jaccob Slavin, Carolina Hurricanes
Jaccob Slavin has been a phenomenal player for a very long time, much longer than he has been viewed as such. Like Ekholm, Slavin peaked in the 2017-18 season, finishing seventh in xGAR that season. Since then, Slavin has been an effective defenseman, but he has not maintained a top-10 level of play since his peak season. NHL Network ranks him at number 17, a fair indication of the perception of Slavin in the hockey community. Slavin is an excellent player, and it is nice to see the hockey community acknowledge his production.
- Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues
Add Colton Parayko to the list of underappreciated defensemen. Parayko, like some of the previously mentioned players on the list, had a relatively underwhelming 2019-20 season, as he posted his worst xGAR since 2016-17 (6.9), but we should not forget how dominant Parayko was before this season, posting an xGAR of at least 11 in the prior two seasons.
- John Carlson, Washington Capitals
Despite landing in the number three spot in NHL Network’s list, John Carlson does not receive the same appreciation on our list. Although he has been one of the top offensive defensemen in the NHL for approximately a decade, Carlson is not as effective on the defensive end of the ice. His xDef has been negative in every season since 2013-14, so it has been several years since Carlson has produced at replacement level defensively. Altogether, his defense holds him back from jumping higher on this list.
- Kris Letang, Pittsburgh Penguins
A top-five among defensemen in xGAR in the 2010s, Kris Letang has been an elite player for several years. Whereas many elite defensemen in the early years of the decade have fallen out of their respective primes, Letang still produces at the level of a number-one defenseman. Due to his track record, it is understandable why NHL Network ranks Letang within its top-10 as well, as he comes in at number eight. Although Letang might not have a future as bright as some of the other players on the list, his production now remains superb.
- Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins
The best young two-way defenseman in the NHL today, Charlie McAvoy ranks ninth on our list and likely will find himself only moving up in future years. Whereas most other defensemen on this list had a greater xOff than xDef in 2019-20, McAvoy had a greater xDef than xOff last season. McAvoy finished third among all defensemen in xDef, establishing himself as one of the best defensive players in the NHL. We completely agree with NHL Network’s ranking of McAvoy, as we both have him coming in at number nine.
- Ryan Ellis, Nashville Predators
Third in Goals Above Replacement (GAR) among all skaters in the NHL in the 2019-20 season, Ryan Ellis certainly has made his impact on his team. An elite player on both ends of the ice, Ellis has had an xGAR above six in each season since 2013-2014. Ellis has provided consistent value to his team, and NHL Network has begun to notice that, ranking him at number 19. Although this ranking may be a bit low according to us, it is nice to see Ellis gain recognition for his years of production.
- Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
A second-year player at number 7? How is that possible? Well, when you are as good as Cale Makar, anything is possible. The fourth-overall draft pick in the 2017 NHL Draft and most recently, the winner of the 2020 Calder Trophy, Makar already has established himself as an elite player in the NHL, ranking sixth on NHL Network’s list. Furthermore, what separates him from the rest of the pack of young defensemen is his transition game. Whereas most defensemen dump the puck into the offensive zone more often than they carry the puck into the offensive zone, Makar adheres to the modern analytical narrative of carrying the puck into the zone more than most young defensemen. In fact, per Corey Sznajder’s transition data, Makar had 33 carry-ins and 29 dump-ins last season, a sign of encouragement as Makar grows into potentially the best defenseman in the NHL.
- Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights
Over the past two seasons, no defenseman has been better than Shea Theodore. And frankly, it is not very close. Theodore’s 33.2 xGAR over the past two seasons ranks first among defensemen and ninth among skaters, cementing Theodore as an elite player in the NHL. NHL Network has gained appreciation for Theodore’s production, ranking him at number 14, but this should be Theodore’s lowest ranking for a long time. At the young age of 25, Theodore is set to be one of the best defensemen of the next decade on one of the best contracts.
- Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas Golden Knights
The most coveted free agent on the market this season, Alex Pietrangelo took his talents to the Vegas Golden Knights, where he and Theodore can form an elite 1-2 punch on defense. Whereas Theodore is the young, exciting defenseman, Pietrangelo is the consistent rock on the backend who can lead this team to a Stanley Cup. With an xGAR north of 10 in each of the past four seasons, Pietrangelo has made his impact clear, and the sky’s the limit for what he and Theodore can accomplish on the Vegas Golden Knights.
- Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota Wild
A list of all defensemen who were better in the 2010s than Jared Spurgeon in the 2010s according to xGAR: Erik Karlsson. That’s it. That’s the list. Spurgeon led all defensemen in xGAR in 2019-20, yet the only vote he received for the Norris Trophy was one fifth-place vote. To NHL Network, Spurgeon does not crack the top-20 defensemen. To us, Spurgeon might crack the top-20 among all NHL players. He is simply that good and he deserves more recognition for his production.
- Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL Network’s top defenseman falls slightly lower on our list. But in all honesty, the top-three could take any order, and it can be easily backed up by numbers. Victor Hedman falls slightly behind the other two simply because he does not have as great of an impact in the offensive and defensive zones as one of the players ahead of him, and he is not as strong in transition as the other players. Nonetheless, he still finished within the top ten defensemen in xGAR last season, warranting consideration for the top spot on our list.
- Dougie Hamilton, Carolina Hurricanes
Had Dougie Hamilton not broken his fibula last season, cutting his season short at 47 games, he likely would have run away with the Norris Trophy. Despite playing approximately 20 fewer games than most other top defensemen, Hamilton still finished fifth last season in xGAR. Few defensemen have been as good as Hamilton since he joined the Carolina Hurricanes, and no defenseman was better on a per-game basis than Hamilton last season. NHL Network does recognize his elite play, ranking him at number seven, but it is time for Hamilton to crack the top-three.
- Roman Josi, Nashville Predators
It is truly difficult to grasp just how effective Roman Josi is. In today’s NHL, there are very few 200-foot-impact players. Oftentimes, players will be effective in one zone, maybe in both zones, but to be effective in transition too is a whole different ball game. Enter Roman Josi, NHL Network’s number-two defenseman. Per Corey Sznajder’s transition data, Josi ranked 12th among all skaters in carry-ins into the offensive zone last season. No other defenseman, let alone a top-20 defensemen, ranked within the top-75. Add on the fact that Josi is a high-impact player, and you will see: there is no defenseman as dominant as Josi.
All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey unless indicated otherwise.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.