The NHL offseason has been crawling along, with the tentative start date to the 2021 NHL season still unknown. The majority of teams in the league are currently having salary cap issues as a result of the flat cap this offseason due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the traditional offseason, top free agents come flying off the board and sign with a new team in a matter of minutes. While it took some more time than usual, most of the best unrestricted free agents were signed at some point in the first couple days or weeks, including Evgenii Dadonov, Taylor Hall, Torey Krug, and TJ Brodie. But why in particular, has Mike Hoffman not signed a contract yet? It’s not that teams don’t want him or a player of his caliber. Hoffman is a gifted goal scorer who has compiled 65 goals in his last two seasons. Pure goal scorers aren’t easy to get. However, Hoffman’s contract situation is a bit more complicated. Let’s break it down.

Why hasn’t Mike Hoffman signed?

There are a couple potential reasons Mike Hoffman hasn’t signed a contract yet. While it sounds relatively simple, one legitimate reason is that teams don’t have the room to sign him. 14 NHL teams are currently either above the cap or within $1.5 million of the maximum salary cap. Teams, including the Islanders, have players they need to sign with the limited cap space internally before exploring free agent options. Given the nature of the flat cap and the fact that the cap is expected to stay that way next offseason, there aren’t many decent teams that can afford to bring Hoffman in at the moment, even if it were a short-term contract.

The second is age. Mike Hoffman is currently 31 years of age and many teams would be scared of signing Hoffman long-term, and rightfully so. While Hoffman’s agent confirmed that his client would be okay of a one-year deal, there is still a possibility that Hoffman wants to find a long-term home on a Stanley Cup contending team. The majority of players don’t sign long-term contracts in their 30s; it is generally when players are 26-28. This is why many fans criticized Vegas signing Alex Pietrangelo to a seven-year contract, as that can be a nightmare a few years down the road. While this doesn’t assume Pietrangelo or Hoffman will regress, teams generally wouldn’t want to roll the dice with longer contracts for players out of their prime, especially in a flat cap era.

Is Mike Hoffman to the Island a possibility?

Islander fans have salivated at the thought of Mike Hoffman in the blue and orange, and he would certainly address the scoring issue on the first line and act as a top goal scorer for Mathew Barzal to work with. While anything is possible, it is unlikely. With Johnny Boychuk retiring and being moved to LTIR, the Islanders have about $9.9 million left to re-sign Mathew Barzal, and re-sign any or all of Matt Martin, Andy Greene, Derick Brassard, Tom Kuhnhackl, and Cory Schneider.

The only realistic way that Hoffman signs with the Islanders is if Andrew Ladd goes on the LTIR and he only signs for one-year, considering Adam Pelech, Ilya Sorokin, and Anthony Beauvillier all have to be signed next offseason. The odds of this happening are slim to none. While some fans have generated the idea that Hoffman holding out this long in unrestricted free agency has something to do with Lou Lamoriello’s crafty management plan, that is wishful thinking to a pretty extreme extent.

What will Hoffman’s contract look like?

Hoffman’s contract will depend on its length. His contract will likely have a smaller paycheck than it would if the COVID-19 pandemic didn’t disrupt the progression of the NHL salary cap, but that is not the case and the same can be said about most free agents around the NHL. We don’t think Hoffman will sign long term, but here are some Hoffman contract projections:

1 year, $4.5M AAV

2 years, $5.75M AAV

3 years, $6.25M AAV

4 years, $6.75M AAV

John Smark