Analytics Corner: Top 10 Goalies in the NHL

After NHL Network released its list of the top-10 goaltenders in the NHL, writer Aidan Resnick and I decided to create our own list. Using advanced stats, we made our way through a plethora of goaltenders, selecting the ten best. Without further adieu, here is our list of the top 10 goalies in the NHL.

10. Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins

Rask is certainly a great goaltender, but he tends to be overvalued due to the spectacular defense the Bruins have put in front of him for the majority of his career. He comes in at number ten because he is still a strong goaltender, as he finished sixth among goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)–the most precise measurement of goaltending impact. With that being said, Rask should not be seen as a top-five goaltender in the league; top-ten is a more precise evaluation of his play at this point in his career.

9. Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues

Jordan Binnington, the 2019 Stanley Cup hero, has been a pleasant surprise for the St. Louis Blues. Since his rookie season, he ranks within the top seven in terms of GSAx. He comes on the ninth spot due to his downward trend in the last two seasons: ranking 12th and 32nd in GSAx in the past two seasons, respectively. That said, at 27 years old, he still has time to develop into a higher position on our list. 

8. Robin Lehner, Vegas Golden Knights

After a fantastic 2018-2019 season with the New York Islanders, Lehner had a complete turn around in his career. Later playing for both Chicago and Vegas, Lehner ranks second in GSAx over the past two seasons. What places him at the eighth spot is a rather small sample size; if we were to only use the last two seasons in evaluating each player, Lehner would rise dramatically on our list. 

7. Anton Khudobin, Dallas Stars

Leading the Dallas Stars throughout the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Khudobin finally got the recognition that he deserves. Ranking in the top-five in the past two seasons in terms of GSAx, Khudobin did not have the opportunity to prove himself as a starter until Ben Bishop got injured. Without a prime starting role until recently, Khudobin is not an easy player to rank, but with such strong numbers over the past seasons, seventh seems like the right place. 

6. Antti Raanta, Arizona Coyotes

One of the most underappreciated goaltenders in the league, Raanta just barely misses the top five on our list. He is third in GSAx over the past three seasons, but he does not get the respect that he deserves primarily because he is not even the best goaltender on his own team. A free agent in 2021, Raanta could prove himself to be an elite top goaltender, because he certainly has produced well above the level of a backup.

5. Corey Crawford, New Jersey Devils

Perhaps the most consistent goaltender over the past half-decade, Crawford now takes his talents to New Jersey, where he likely will split time with MacKenzie Blackwood. We understand why the Devils might be inclined to favor Blackwood, given that he is the future of a rebuilding franchise, but make no mistake, Crawford is still an elite goaltender in the NHL. In fact, he is second in GSAx over the past six seasons. It will be interesting to see how much playing time he gets, but as long as he is playing, expect him to be a star.

4. Darcy Kuemper, Arizona Coyotes

The Arizona Coyotes have found a star in Kuemper. In the games he played in the 2019-2020 season before his injury, he was not letting anything by, ranking second in GSAx. What lands him at the four spot even after such a dominant season is the rather small sample size. Kuemper struggled in the first three years of his career most notably in the 2016-17 season, but we believe that he has turned the corner, making him one of the best goaltenders in the NHL.

3. Ben Bishop, Dallas Stars

Although Khudobin shined in the Dallas Stars playoff race, Bishop still stands as one of the top goaltenders in the league. Over the past two seasons, Bishop ranks first in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected, and in the 2018-2019 season, he had a strong case for the Vezina Trophy. There are certainly question marks about his job security after Khudobin excelled in the postseason, but there is little doubt that Bishop is still one of the most talented goaltenders in the NHL.

2. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets

Most hockey fans know that Hellebuyck was good last season. In all honesty, most hockey fans likely know that Hellebuyck was great last season. But did you know that he was arguably the most valuable player in the NHL last season? With a GSAx 2.28 times greater than anybody else’s last season, Hellebuyck was simply on a different level. Granted, his breakout season was came after a very disappointing season, but a season like that cannot be taken for granted. If Hellebuyck can fight off the inconsistency that plagues most goaltenders, he should find himself at the top of this list very soon.

1. John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks

Gibson posted an extremely disappointing season in 2019-20, but for pretty much his entire career before that, he was the most productive goaltender in the entire NHL. In fact, from 2016-17 to 2018-19, Gibson had a GSAx twice as high as any other goaltenders except Sergei Bobrovsky’s. He led the NHL in GSAx in 2017-18 and in 2018-19, thus robbed of two Vezina Trophies, and in full disclosure, two Vezina Trophies would not even accurately describe his performance in this time period. In a league in which goaltending is wildly inconsistent, Gibson is the exception to the rule.

 

*All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise indicated.

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