Analytics Corner: The Ten Most Underrated Players in the NHL
NHL Network is currently making its list of the top-50 players in the NHL, but they certainly left quite a few extremely talented players off of their list. To give the players who did not make it some appreciation, writer Kush Malhotra and I now will analyze the ten best players whom they left off the top-50, all ten who happen to be some of the most underrated players in the NHL.
- Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins
Although he missed the majority of the 2019-20 season after injuring his shoulder, Guentzel is a name that is easily forgotten, but he is still a top-50 player. According to MoneyPuck’s Shooting Talent Above Average model, Guentzel ranked as a top-five best shot in the NHL last season–his style perfectly suits Crosby’s playmaking expertise. In terms of career numbers, Guentzel has ranked third in terms of Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (xGAR/60) over the past two seasons among players with a sample larger than 1,000 minutes played. Guentzel possesses an excellent shot and is able to create chances as well as anyone, further establishing himself as a top-50 player in the league.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers
Often overlooked due to the star power on the Oilers in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins is an all-around solid player who is very strong on the power play. Unlike his teammates, he serves more as a playmaker, as he was top-30 in zone entries in the 2019-2020 season with nearly a 60% carry-in percentage. On the power play, he ranked ninth in Power Play Offense (PPO) among skaters, further proving his impact in all areas of the game. A top-25 forward in Goals Above Replacement (GAR) last season, Nugent-Hopkins is playing near the level of the first overall pick that he once was.
- Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes
Leading the Hurricanes to back-to-back playoff trips, Svechnikov is a budding superstar who is especially dominant in the offensive zone. As a top-50 player in zone entries last season, he held a 68.75% carry-in percentage, emphasizing his high hockey IQ at a young age. Also, in the 2019-20 season, he ranked fifth in Goals For per 60 Minutes (GF/60) and third in terms of Expected Goals For per 60 Minutes (xGF/60). On a team with an excellent young core, Svechnikov is the franchise player.
- Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets
While quite a few Jets made NHL Network’s list, NHL Network omitted the team’s best player. Part of the reason behind this may be Ehlers’ unconventional impact. He is not the best goal-scorer on the team. He is not the best defensive player on the team. However, he does all of the little things well, and he excels in certain areas. Among forwards, he finished seventh in Corsi +/- (C +/-) last season, proving that he excels in creating and preventing opportunities. Additionally, he was eighth among skaters in zone entries last season, which shows that he is extremely valuable in transition. A holistically elite player, Ehlers deserves more respect as he develops into an even better player.
- Brendan Gallagher, Montreal Canadiens
Like Ellis, Gallagher is one of the most unique players in the NHL, but this is not backed up by the same reasoning. Gallagher is one of the smaller players in the league, but that does not stop him from making his presence known. Per MoneyPuck’s Expected Goals model, Gallagher finished first in xGoals per 60 Minutes at 5-on-5 last season, which proves how valuable he is at creating scoring opportunities. While he certainly does not have the best shot, he finished top 20 in GF/60 and xGF/60, and fourth in Corsi For per 60 Minutes (CF/60) among skaters last season, a sign that he is one of the most valuable players in the offensive zone in the entire NHL. If he improves his shot, he will certainly be recognized as one of the best players in the world, but for now, he remains underappreciated.
- Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning
Although hockey incorporates both offense and defense, in these mainstream lists, offense is always the most important factor. Cirelli is a smart hockey player who is good offensively and extremely dominant defensively. Although he does not score as many points as the top guys on his team, he provides a significant impact on the other side of the rink, as he finished 21st in zone entries last season with more carry-ins than dump-ins. Also, he was 17th among skaters in GAR over the past two seasons. Finally, he was seventh in terms of Defensive Goals Above Replacement (Def) among skaters over the past two seasons, confirming his elite defensive status. If defense were truly valued as it should be, Cirelli would have been a no-brainer.
- Ryan Ellis, Nashville Predators
Ellis is a very unique player, for he is a defenseman whose value lies primarily in the form of offense. In terms of talent, Ellis is the best goal-scorer among defensemen in the NHL. He finished second among defensemen per MoneyPuck’s Shooting Talent Above Average model, portraying his elite shot. Additionally, he finished first in Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (GAR/60) among all skaters who played at least 25 games last season, a truly remarkable feat that speaks volumes for his ability to put the puck in the back of the net. The hockey community appears to be aware that Ellis is good, but they may not realize how excellent he is, and he absolutely deserves to crack the top-50 NHL players.
- Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers
It is truly mind-blowing that Giroux did not make NHL Network’s list given his years of excellence. Usually, NHL Network ranks experienced players quite generously, as evidenced by its ranking of Alex Ovechkin and Patrick Kane, but Giroux was not as fortunate, and we are not exactly sure why. After posting the best single-season over the past three seasons in 2017-18, finishing with the highest single-season xGAR and second-highest single-season GAR since then, Giroux has kept up his elite play. Over the past two seasons, Giroux ranked 27th in GAR, and last season, Giroux finished in the top 20 in zone entries. Giroux is still an extremely valuable player, and he should be seen as such.
- Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights
Theodore is a superstar defenseman who creates opportunities on both ends of the ice. Over the past two seasons, he ranks first among defensemen in xGAR, third among defensemen in Expected Offensive Goals Above Replacement (xOff), and 17th among defensemen in expected Expected Even-Strength Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xEVD). In terms of his transition game, he had more carry-ins than dump-ins last season, which speaks volumes for his offensive brilliance. Theodore is an amazing defenseman, and it is only a matter of time until he gets the recognition that he deserves.
- Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota Wild
Not only has Spurgeon become one of the most underappreciated defensemen over the past few years, but also he has become one of the best. Last season, he led all defensemen in xGAR, and he did it in a fashion that was extremely valuable for the Minnesota Wild. He finished third among defensemen in xEVD, proving his defensive prowess, and fifth among defensemen in Even-Strength Offensive Goals Above Replacement (EVO), proving his offensive prowess. A high-impact player in the NHL, Spurgeon is one of the league’s brightest stars, and it is only a matter of time before he is recognized as one.
All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey or Corey Sznajder’s transition data unless otherwise indicated.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.
