Debunking Myths: How Good Are the Minnesota Wild?
Although the NHL season has yet to start, it is quite tempting to look ahead to not only the regular season but also the postseason. The usual suspects––the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Colorado Avalanche, the Boston Bruins, and the Vegas Golden Knights––are back and ready to contend for the Stanley Cup. While these teams carry the most talent, there is one team, one that will undoubtedly fly under the radar, that has the potential to defy the odds and make a run this year: the Minnesota Wild.
To many, this may seem absurd. And in full disclosure, it very well might turn out to be absurd. But we should not overlook the season that the Wild put together in 2019-2020. In terms of Skater Goals Above Replacement (Skater GAR) the Minnesota Wild finished first in the league last year. Whereas many fans and analysts might not see much talent and potential within the Wild organization, I see immense impact among the skater group.
Subdividing the skater group, we can find that the Wild ranked first in Even-Strength Defensive Goals Above Replacement (EVD GAR) and fifth in Shorthanded Defensive Goals Above Replacement (SHD GAR). Led by Jared Spurgeon, a bona fide superstar, the Wild defensive core is filled with depth in both even-strength and shorthanded high-impact players. There is little reason to believe that the Wild’s defensive production will decrease significantly this year.
In terms of offense, the Wild ranked fifth in Even-Strength Offensive Goals Above Replacement (EVO GAR) and ninth in Powerplay Offensive Goals Above Replacement (PPO GAR). An already dominant offensive bunch plus potential Calder Trophy candidate Kirill Kaprizov should present an opportunity for the Wild to go only up from the high standard they set for themselves last season.
So why was Minnesota not an elite team last season? My first point is that luck was clearly not on their side. A team that ranked fifth in GAR last season should not have finished second to last in its division; the top-four teams in GAR were the top-four teams in points in the regular season. My second point, however, is that their goaltending was simply abysmal. The Wild’s Goaltending Goals Above Replacement (Goalie GAR) was dead last in the league at -13.7. Just for some perspective, the next lowest was -3.7. The Minnesota Wild had one of the worst goaltending seasons in recent memory.
Why was the Wild’s Goalie GAR this low? Well, goaltender Devan Dubnyk’s GAR last season was -14.8, even worse than the team’s Goalie GAR. Devan Dubnyk is no longer on the Minnesota Wild; they replaced him with Cam Talbot, a goaltender who posted a GAR of 10.3 as a member of the Calgary Flames last season. Add that to backup goaltender Alex Stalock’s 0.5 GAR last season, and the Wild has a Goalie GAR of 10.8.
A Goalie GAR of 10.8 last season would have ranked 20th in the NHL. Although not great, this mark is certainly an upgrade from the Wild’s dead-last finish. If the Wild’s Goalie GAR increased from -13.7 to 10.8 last season, their overall GAR would have ranked second in the fourth in the NHL and closer to the best team than the fifth-best team. Account for the addition of Kaprizov, and you might see the top team in the NHL.
Obviously, there is a ton of randomness in a 56-game season, but if any team is equipped to shock the world this season, it is the Minnesota Wild.
All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.
