There is a lot to like about Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Seth Jones. He is a warrior on the ice, always carrying a big workload, and he is a well-respected player off the ice. In fact, Jones is widely regarded as one of the best defensemen in the NHL. NHL Network ranked him at number five on its list of the top-20 defensemen in the NHL and proceeded to rank him 32nd among all NHL players in the NHL. Furthermore, he was one of only three defensemen to play more than 25 minutes per game last season, and his workload is most appreciated when we consider his ice time in the Blue Jackets’ Game 1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs: 65 minutes and six seconds. This is a feat that is impossible to accomplish in a regular-season game, a testament to just how much he gave into that game. And for that, he deserves a boatload of respect.

But if he is going to be regarded as such an elite defenseman, the numbers should back it up. And thus far, in his career, they have not. In Jones’s two best seasons, 2016-2017 and 2017-18, Jones ranked 52nd and 65th among skaters in Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR), marking very strong seasons. At this point in his career, it would have been reasonable to have high hopes for Jones. After all, Jones was a high draft pick, and he was developing into a better player as his career progressed. But that was after the 2017-2018 season. Right now, in 2021, we must face the reality that Jones is not producing at the level many members of the mainstream sports media think he is.

In 2018-2019, Jones’s xGAR dropped from 13.9 in 2017-18 to 7.3, almost splitting in half. And it got worse from there. In 2019-20, Jones’s xGAR dropped all the way down to 2.8. Last season, Jones ranked 322nd among skaters in xGAR, falling behind the likes of Jason Dickinson, Blake Lizotte, and Brandon Sutter, among 318 others. Jones’ impact is falling closer and closer to replacement-level. About to enter his eighth season, Jones would have to alter his career trajectory rather drastically if he wants to improve into the player he is expected to be.

The Seth Jones case is one that represents the power of numbers. On the surface, Jones seems like a generational player. After all, why else would one of the most highly respected coaches in the NHL give Jones so much ice time if he is not a high-impact player? Well, it is always important to delve beyond the surface, and here, we can find that Jones does not produce at the level that most analysts say he does.

So no, Jones does not belong within the top-5 defensemen in my opinion. And frankly, there is no statistical basis for his place over players such as Dougie Hamilton, Jared Spurgeon, and Charlie McAvoy. I am truly rooting for Jones to succeed, but at this point in his career, Jones would have to defy the odds in order to turn into a star defenseman.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.