As we prepare for the 2021 NHL season, let’s dive into the ten most valuable players on the New York Islanders using advanced statistics.

10. Anders Lee

The captain comes in at number ten, providing value off the ice as well as on the ice. But while Lee is still a talented hockey player, his production has dropped off since former captain John Tavares headed to Toronto. In Tavares’ final season on the Islanders, Lee was in the 95th percentile in offensive production and the 90th percentile in overall production. This past season, Lee was in the 69th percentile offensively and the 54th percentile overall. Now on the wrong side of 30, Lee needs to defy the odds to return to his old value, but don’t get me wrong; he is still an important piece on a Stanley Cup contender.

9. Semyon Varlamov

Varlamov was a tough player to rank primarily due to his position, but he plays a very important role on this team, as evidenced by last season. In 2019-2020, Varlamov ranked 23rd in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), and in the postseason, he ranked sixth in the same metric. Based on those numbers, Varlamov’s ranking may seem a bit low. However, whereas last season, Varlamov was the clear top goaltender on the Islanders due to goaltender Thomas Greiss’ approximately average production, this year, a lot of Varlamov’s value depends on the production of rookie goaltender Ilya Sorokin. Varlamov should be a solid asset in goal for the Islanders this season, but his true value remains to be seen.

8. Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Although Pageau possesses talent on both ends of the ice, his value to this team exceeds his talent. The Islanders have three sure-fire lines, but the only certainty with the uncertain line is the man down the middle. Pageau likely will play with a plethora of wingers this season, many of whom are still maturing and growing, so it is essential that Pageau’s playstyle represents one from which the young prospects can learn. Fortunately, it is a very valuable two-way playstyle, as last season, Pageau was in the 83rd percentile in offensive production and the 47th percentile in defensive production.

7. Casey Cizikas

Cizikas has been the epitome of the New York Islanders for almost a decade now, and his value extends off the ice. A leader, a warrior, a true New York Islander, Cizikas’ impact comes in unique but valuable ways. Over the past three seasons, Cizikas has ranked in the 54th percentile in offensive production and the 97th percentile in defensive production. One of the best defensive forwards in the NHL, Cizikas can be trusted to match up against any opposing top center in the NHL, making himself an invaluable asset to a defensively structured team.

6. Jordan Eberle

Eberle is an extremely strong offensive player for the New York Islanders––a well-positioned winger to Mathew Barzal. Over the past three seasons, Eberle has posted a very strong Expected Offensive Goals Above Replacement (xEVO), proving his effectiveness as a playmaker in the offensive zone. In this time span, Eberle ranks in the 79th percentile in offensive production but in the 22nd percentile in defensive production. His lack of a two-way game prevents him from shooting up this list, but as an offensive asset, Eberle is as valuable as almost any player on the team.

5. Adam Pelech

A fan favorite, Pelech has gained immense respect throughout the Islanders fan base and frankly the NHL community for his defensive prowess. And the numbers back it up. Over the past three seasons, Pelech ranks in the 96th percentile defensively, so you can trust that your eyes are not misleading you here. Every simple but smart play that Pelech plays has a true impact, which is why Pelech cracks the top five. He ranks in only the 22nd percentile in offensive production in this time span, so he is not necessarily a two-way force, but his defense is as good as anybody’s.

4. Brock Nelson

Nelson was arguably the Islanders’ best offensive forward last season, finishing in the 88th percentile of offensive production, and he was not too shabby on the defensive end either, ranking in the 73rd percentile. Nelson is approaching thirty, so it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his two-way production, but for now, Nelson provides a second-line center that is invaluable to this team.

3. Anthony Beauvillier

Beauvillier was the Islanders’ most flawless forward last season. For starters, he ranked in the 78th percentile in offensive production and the 76th percentile in offensive production, two remarkable feats for a then-22-year-old player. Diving deeper, we can find that Beauvillier produced above replacement-level in even-strength offense, in even-strength defense, on the power play, and on the penalty kill. A complete player at such a young age, Beauvillier could find himself even higher on this list in the future.

2. Ryan Pulock

Although Pulock is not a perfect player, he was arguably the most valuable piece of the figurative Islanders puzzle last season. His overall impact was in the 96th percentile, and his two-way impact was even more impressive, as he surpassed the 90th percentile on each end. While he is not the greatest transition defenseman, he is the bonafide top defenseman on the Islanders, and as he approaches his age-26 season, Pulock has immense potential to develop into one of the best defensemen in the league.

1. Mathew Barzal

Barzal is the best player on the Islanders, and it is apparent to nearly every hockey fan. He drives the offense, excelling in transition, and he has shown defensive potential as well. Since his rookie season, he has ranked in the 87th percentile in offensive production and the 41th percentile in defensive production. Barzal is now 23, and he is growing into a more mature player than ever before. The sky’s the limit for one of the brightest young stars in the National Hockey League.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.