The NHL season is underway, and the New York Islanders look like their usual defensive-minded selves. In fact, Semyon Varlamov has pitched two shutouts with the help of the defense in front of him. The Islanders’ defense core has remained constant throughout the start of the season, but it is worth wondering if the Islanders should make any changes to their defense. Let’s dive into the numbers to see which six defensemen Head Coach Barry Trotz should put in the lineup?

The Islanders’ top defense pair of Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech is as strong as ever. Pulock is growing into one of the game’s top defensemen, and Pelech has not skipped a beat as one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL. There is no doubt in my mind that these two assets should be in the lineup, leading the team in ice time every game.

One defenseman who has had a fantastic start to his season, despite preseason question marks surrounding his impact, is Nick Leddy. Leddy ranks fifth on the Islanders and second among defensemen thus far in Expected Goal Differential per 60 Minutes (xG+/-/60), and he has always been an elite transition defenseman. If Leddy starts to decline this season, questions about his playing time can justifiably arise, but as of now, Trotz should lock Leddy into the lineup.

Although many questioned the play of Noah Dobson after the Islanders’ 5-0 loss to the New York Rangers in their second game of the season, Dobson has put together quite a solid start to his sophomore campaign. Dobson ranks sixth on the team in xG+/-/60, and as he develops on both ends of the ice, his Expected Goals For (xGF) should rise, and his Expected Goals Against (xGA) should fall. Dobson does not have enough of a track record to be a lock in the lineup, but it seems rather absurd to take playing time away from somebody with a future as bright as Dobson’s.

That brings us to two defensemen who have had subpar impacts thus far: Scott Mayfield and Andy Greene. Coming into the season, Greene had established himself as one of the better defensive defensemen in the NHL, ranking in the 75th percentile in defensive production in 2019-2020. However, this year has told a drastically different story thus far. Greene ranks second-last on the team in xG+/-/60 at a whopping mark of -2.02, and his Expected Goals Against per 60 Minutes xGA/60 ranks sixth on the team. It is too early to take such a consistent defender out of the lineup just yet, but his grip on the job should certainly be weakening unless he turns things around.

Unfortunately, Mayfield has not gotten off to the best start either. After losing his defense partner, Devon Toews, in the off-season, Mayfield has struggled to regain his 2019-2020 form. He has been the third-least productive skater on the Islanders thus far, sporting an xG+/-/60 of -18.5. It is likely too early in the season to pull such a valuable asset from the lineup, but Mayfield’s production is certainly worth monitoring in a season in which every game matters.

In terms of replacements, both Sebastian Aho and Thomas Hockey present themselves as viable alternatives to Greene or Mayfield. Aho has little NHL experience, but his upside as one of the team’s top prospects certainly makes him worth a look. Hickey’s worst season of his career came in his one season with Barry Trotz, per Goals Above Replacement, so questions about Hickey’s fit in Trotz’s system can justifiably arise. But Hickey was once a dynamic offensive defenseman for the Islanders, so he absolutely warrants consideration.

It is far too early to consider any sort of drastic lineup changes, but when Trotz treats every game like a playoff game, any potential boost in production is worth considering.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.