The season is approximately two-weeks old, so is it too early to make our picks for the NHL awards? Perhaps, but let’s take the time to praise some of the best players so far this season. From forwards to defensemen to goaltenders, Kush Malhotra and I dove into some advanced statistics to determine which players have gotten off to the strongest starts.

Hart Memorial Trophy

Finalists: Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG), John Gibson (ANA), Shea Theodore (VGK)

Winner: John Gibson (ANA)

Although Gibson’s 2019-20 season was a huge disappointment given his previous success, he has reestablished himself as the clear top goaltender in the NHL. He ranks first among all players in Goals Above Replacement (GAR), and his 8.6 mark is more than twice as high as any skater. Additionally, Gibson is first in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) by more than two goals. It is looking like this season will become another one of Gibson’s most dominant ones, which is why he comes in as our Hart Trophy winner thus far.

Runners Up

For years, Nikolaj Ehlers was one of the most underrated players in the NHL. He is finally cementing himself as a superstar this season––the best player on his team. He ranks:

• second among skaters in GAR
• seventh among skaters in Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR)
• first among skaters in Goals For per 60 Minutes (GF/60) by a landslide.

Ehlers’s overall impact in the grand scheme of things is highlighted by his offense, and as he reaches his physical prime, he will only improve.

Like Ehlers, Shea Theodore is a budding star, and sooner rather than later, hockey fans will recognize him as not only one of the best defensemen but also one of the best players in the NHL. He is seventh among skaters in GAR, first in xGAR, first in GF, sixth in Expected Goals For (xGF) and second in Corsi For (CF), all elite ranks this season. Watch him closely as this season progresses. 

James Norris Memorial Trophy

Finalists: Justin Holl (TOR), Cale Makar (COL), Shea Theodore (VGK)

Winner: Shea Theodore (VGK)

We outlined Theodore’s most prestigious statistics above, but we could go on about Theodore’s generational value. When we mentioned that Theodore ranks first in xGAR, we perhaps should have pointed out that he is the only defensemen in the top ten. The sky’s truly the limit for Theodore, and he could not have gotten off to a better start to the season.

Runners Up

Although his appearance here may seem surprising given his relatively unimpressive NHL career thus far, Justin Holl has had a phenomenal start to this season. He ranks third among defensemen in xGAR and GAR, and is at least approximately 1.5 standard deviations above the mean in xGF/60, CF/60, Expected Goals Against per 60 Minutes (xGA/60), and Corsi Against per 60 Minutes (CA/60).

Holl truly has been one of the best players in the NHL this season. Whereas many analysts, ourselves included, likely expected Morgan Rielly or Jake Muzzin to lead the Toronto Maple Leafs’ defense core in production, Holl has emerged as the top guy so far. The second finalist should come as less of a surprise given his elite rookie season.

Cale Makar, at the young age of 22 years, had already become one of the best players in the NHL, and his second season has certainly added to that narrative. He leads all skaters in GAR, and he ranks second among defensemen in xGAR, but the most encouraging statistic for Makar is his dead-last rank in xGA. You can’t watch Makar play and not grasp his unbelievable offensive prowess, but he’s taken a massive step forward in his defensive game this year. That said, Makar falls just short in this race to perhaps the best skater in the NHL so far. 

Vezina Trophy

Finalists: MacKenzie Blackwood (NJD), John Gibson (ANA), Semyon Varlamov (NYI)

Winner: John Gibson (ANA)

There is not too much to say about the Vezina Trophy race, as one statistic, GSAx, is extremely precise and indicative of isolated goaltending performance.

John Gibson, ranks first by more than two goals, as previously mentioned. Each of these goaltenders had a very strong reputation coming into the season, and these reputations likely only improved. Although they are all at very different stages in their careers, they all should continue to play at an elite level throughout the season.

These three finalists––Blackwood, Gibson, and Varlamov––are the top-three goaltenders in GSAx. Blackwood ranks third in GSAx, which is especially impressive given that he has played only three games. At the time of writing, Varlamov ranked second in GSAx in one more game than Blackwood. 

Calder Memorial Trophy

Finalists: Olli Juolevi (VAN), Kirill Kaprizov (MIN), Alexander Romanov (MTL)

Winner: Kirill Kaprizov (MIN)

Even though we listed three finalists, this award seems to be more of a two-man race between Alexander Romanov and Kaprizov. Kaprizov, has been everything we had expected and more. He ranks ninth among skaters in GAR and seventh among skaters in GF/60, showing that he can be a dominant overall player in the NHL, especially on the offensive end. 

Runners Up

Romanov has also been extremely impressive so far. He ranks thirteenth among all defensemen in xGAR thus far, and his offensive production has been elite, as he has been over approximately two standard deviations above the mean in GF/60, xGF/60, and CF/60.

Juolevi, a former fifth-overall draft pick, finally seems to have turned this corner this season, ranking second on the Canucks in GAR. The future is bright for these three players and many more, as they begin their young careers.

Selke Trophy

Finalists: Jack Eichel (BUF), Claude Giroux (PHI), Tyson Jost (COL)

Winner: Claude Giroux (PHI)

Our winner is someone who has earned a reputation as a solid defensive forward but seems to have taken a step forward this season. Giroux:

• leads all forwards in xDef and ranks fourth among forwards in Def
• has the third-lowest Goals Against per 60 Minutes (GA/60) and second-lowest xGA/60 this season

Both the observed statistics and the expected statistics show that Giroux has been perhaps the best defensive forward this season, earning him an early nomination for the Selke Trophy.

Runners Up

A relatively surprising defensive star this season, Jost has been elite defensively according to a variety of statistics. He ranks:

• second among forwards in Defensive Goals Above Replacement (Def)
• third among forwards in Expected Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xDef)
• sixth-lowest among forwards xGA/60,

All these stats laud his well-roundedness in the defensive zone. Add on the fact that Jost kills penalties, and we have the most versatile defensive forward on this list.

Our other runner up is already a superstar on the offensive end. But Jack Eichel seems to be turning into one of the best two-way forwards in the game. Eichel is:

• First among forwards in Def
• eighth among forwards in xDef 
• has the fourth-lowest among forwards in xGA/60

Eichel’s production appears to be very similar to Jost’s. Eichel’s development has been fantastic, and the advanced stats make that clear. 

 

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey and are accurate at time of writing.