Analytics Corner: How Barry Trotz Should Manage the Islanders’ First Line
The New York Islanders’ first line, featuring Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle, was one of the best lines in the NHL, so why did Barry Trotz break it up?
The terrific trio got off to a blazing start to the season, even leading all NHL lines in Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) after the first few weeks. However, while the Islanders’ first line was successful, the team around them was not as fortunate. In the midst of the Islanders’ early-season struggles, Head Coach Barry Trotz split the linemates, dropping Eberle down to the second line and bumping Josh Bailey to the top line. As the old proverb goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But it was “broke,” and there needed to be a solution.
Trotz’s job certainly did not get any easier once second-liner Anthony Beauvillier went down with a lower-body injury. A clear-cut top six lost its evenness, which prompted a new second line too. Nonetheless, Beauvillier likely will return to the lineup soon, and his return raises an important question: how should Trotz manage the Islanders’ top line?
One option is to leave Bailey on Barzal’s right wing, a decision that would keep Eberle on the second line. After all, Bailey is the longest-tenured player on the Islanders. His mature, veteran presence could help Barzal grow to the next level. But the numbers don’t lie.
With Eberle on the right side of Barzal, the top line has been a force to be reckoned with on offense. In fact, this combination provides a whopping 40% increase in Expected Goals per 60 Minutes (xG/60). While Bailey has not played on this line for very long, the Islanders’ first line provides a 6% decrease when Bailey is there. This drastic change from 3.53 xG /60 to 2.38 xG/60 could be the difference between wins and losses for a low-scoring team.
Not only is the first line better with Eberle instead of Bailey, but the second line has been remarkably strong defensively with Bailey instead of Eberle on the right wing. When Nelson, Beauvillier and Bailey are together, the Islanders’ Expected Goals Against per 60 Minutes (xGA/60) decreases by 34%. The Islanders have not looked like their usual selves on defense recently, and the absence of Beauvillier from this line is one of the primary reasons behind this.
Losing five straight games is never a good sign, and Trotz was absolutely justified in making changes. However, once Beauvillier comes back, Trotz should promote Eberle to the top line, putting the Islanders’ first line back together. Flanking Barzal with Lee and Eberle and centering Nelson with Beauvillier and Bailey will provide the Islanders with a balance of offense and defense that should revive their winning ways.
All statistics are from HockeyViz and are accurate from time of writing.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.
