Why Adam Pelech Is One of the Islanders’ Best Players
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: “Adam Pelech is elite.” What was once just a social media trend is indeed factual, and the analytics back up the Islanders’ top-pair blue-liner.
This season, the Islanders’ two best skaters in terms of goals above replacement (GAR) have been Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech, the dominant top-pair defensemen on the best defensive team in the NHL. Although the team has struggled out of the gate, their defensive-minded identity has stuck around from their Eastern Conference Finals run last season.
Not only has Pelech’s production been elite with respect to the rest of the team, but he has played at the level of a legitimate number-one defenseman. He is in the top-25 among defensemen in GAR so far, on pace for the best production of his career. Obviously, the Islanders still have 44 games left, but early indications suggest he could keep up the pace for the rest of the year.
However, there is one aspect of Pelech’s game that stands out this season: offense. Even Pelech’s most rabid fans would likely classify him as a “stay-at-home” defenseman, focusing more on defense than offense. His spectacular defensive numbers over the past few seasons justify that.
But it seems as if Pelech is becoming a prominent two-way defenseman too. His production has been approximately one standard deviation above the mean in both Goals For per 60 Minutes (GF/60) and Expected Goals For per 60 Minutes (xGF/60). That means he has produced both a high-quality shot and efficient playmaking prowess. A versatile offensive defenseman could prove to be immensely valuable to this team down the stretch.
Pelech’s impact is even clearer when you take him off the ice. Without Pelech, the Islanders’ xGF/60 is 2.01, 20% below league average. A team that is expected to score only two goals per game would likely struggle to gain any traction in the standings. Therefore, Pelech’s contributions on offense are crucial to the Islanders’ success.
More than anything else, Pelech’s effort and determination epitomizes exactly how the Islanders have been successful. Don’t be surprised if the Islanders make another deep playoff run, and don’t be surprised if Pelech is one of the primary contributors.
All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey or HockeyViz and are accurate at the time of writing.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.
