Why Hasn’t Ilya Sorokin Played More Games?
Ilya Sorokin recorded his second straight shutout Sunday against the Penguins, but hasn’t played nearly as many games as his counterpart, Semyon Varlamov. Does that make any sense?
Before the season, head coach Barry Trotz said he’d split his goaltenders about 60-40, with Varlamov getting most of the starts. That made sense. Varlamov had more experience, and just led the Islanders to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 1993. Sorokin, although impressive in the KHL, needed some time acclimate to the best hockey league in the world. To date, Varlamov has played 16 of the Isles’ 21 games while Sorokin started the other five, about an 80-20 split.
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Context
In 21 games, Trotz has seen a veteran goalie play way above expectations, and a rookie struggle to meet expectations. Step into Trotz’s shoes, wouldn’t you ride the hot hand?
Sorokin’s NHL debut probably wasn’t what he dreamt of. Trotz scheduled Varlamov to start both games of the season-opening series against the Rangers. But during warmups of the second game, Cal Clutterbuck hit Varlamov up high with a shot, forcing Sorokin into action. He allowed five goals and the Islanders lost. Varlamov started the next two games, recording a shutout against Boston and allowing one goal against the Devils.
Then Sorokin got another start against the Devils. However, the Islanders couldn’t give him goal support, and they lost 2-0. The next game, Varlamov allowed a late game-winner against Washington. But even though Trotz decided to run with the veteran for two more games, the Islanders lost both of them. So Sorokin got another chance in a back-to-back against the Flyers, but despite a strong performance couldn’t get the win.
When the calendar turned to February, Trotz went back to Varlamov for five straight games. The Islanders went 4-0-1, including a shutout against the Rangers. Sorokin got another chance in a back-to-back against Buffalo and he finally prevailed, shutting them out 3-0. But Varlamov earned Trotz’s trust from the previous five games and gave him five more starts, this time going 2-2-1.
Sorokin got a chance to close out the month strong, and he came through with yet another shutout and his second NHL win.
Moving Forward
Maybe after the first Sorokin shutout, Trotz felt that Varlamov deserved to hold the starting job because he was red hot. But he can’t not say the same for Sorokin at this point. Among goalies who have played at least four games, Ilya Sorokin has a save percentage above expected of 1.172%, seventh best in the league. That means that he has stopped that many more shots than prescribed by his expected save percentage on unblocked shots (95.8%). Varlamov, for comparison, has stopped 0.056% less shots than his expected 96%.
The surface statistics tell a similar story. Varlamov and Sorokin have comparable goals against averages (2.17 and 2.19 respectively) while seeing a similar amount of shots per game. With Tuesday night’s game against New Jersey followed by three more against Buffalo, Trotz should give Sorokin at least two starts over the next week.
Rest is also starting to become a factor. The Islanders don’t have two days off until March 30 and 31. They play 16 games this month including three back-to-backs. This week, due to unorthodox start times over the weekend, I would alternate Varlamov and Sorokin, starting with Sorokin against the Devils.
Technique Matters
Despite everything above, Varlamov is still the Islanders’ best goalie. Watch these two saves (start the first one at 1:19 and the second at 6:39):
The saves are somewhat similar. The goalie has to move from left to right quickly. But Varlamov’s head moves before his body does while Sorokin’s does not. The head (specifically the eyes) should track the puck’s movement and the should body follow, moving exactly where it needs to in order to make the save. This is called head trajectory, and this video explains it:
It appears, at least in that example, that Varlamov has a better grasp of the technique than Sorokin. That’s significant, because it means that Varlamov’s movements are more controlled and deliberate. However, Sorokin’s unparalleled flexibility can get him out of some precarious situations. But if Sorokin can master head trajectory, he may not need to. That’s why he has the potential to be an incredible goaltender in the NHL.
However, that doesn’t mean Trotz shouldn’t give him plenty of starts over the next few weeks. His play and analytics have been top notch, and can only be better.
Born and raised on Long Island. Isles fan since 2009. Studying journalism at the University of Maryland, College Park.
