February NHL hockey has been nothing short of exhilarating, featuring star-studded performances and even a pair of outdoor hockey games. Writer Kush Malhotra and I will dive into the advanced statistics to determine the NHL Awards leaders at this point in the season.

Hart Memorial Trophy:

Finalists: Auston Matthews (TOR), Connor McDavid (EDM), Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB)

Winner: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB)

The Hart Trophy runners-up are arguably the two best players in the NHL. Auston Matthews has emerged as one of the greatest goal scorers of our generation; he ranks third in Goals For per 60 Minutes (GF/60) this season. However, his play extends far beyond just scoring. His Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) leads the league by a landslide, and his Goals Above Replacement (GAR) ranks sixth among all skaters. Matthews is turning into one of the most impactful players in today’s game, so do not be surprised to see him skyrocket to the top of this list.

The consensus best player in the world comes as the runner-up in the Hart Trophy race at this point in the season. In terms of GAR, Connor McDavid ranks first among skaters, and in terms of xGAR, McDavid ranks second. What separates his performance this year from that of previous years is his improvement as a two-way player. Everybody knows McDavid for his historic offensive dominance, but did you know that he has had an extremely solid defensive season as well? He has performed greater than the mean in GF/60, Expected Goals For per 60 Minutes (xGF/60), Corsi For per 60 Minutes (CF/60), Expected Goals Against per 60 Minutes (xGA/60), and Corsi Against per 60 Minutes (CF/60). A force on the power play as well, McDavid is as valuable as ever.

In the NFL, a quarterback almost always wins MVP. Though not as extreme, goaltenders, when dominant, can take over this race. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been far greater than any other goaltender this season, which puts him atop our Hart Trophy rankings. His GAR is 5.9 higher than any other player’s, and his Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of 12.92  and Save % Above Expected of 2.038% both lead the NHL by a comfortable margin. Goaltenders tend to fluctuate in terms of production, but at this point, Vasilevskiy has been the league’s most valuable player.

James Norris Memorial Trophy:

Finalists: Cale Makar (COL), Darnell Nurse (EDM), Brett Pesce (CAR)

Winner: Cale Makar (COL)

In a breakout season in the making, Darnell Nurse has been an integral source of offensive production from the blue line for the Edmonton Oilers. He ranks second among all defensemen in xGAR this season, 1.2 greater than the third-place defenseman. Similarly, he ranks fifth among defensemen in GAR and first among defensemen in GF/60, furthering the notion that Nurse has developed into an offensive force while maintaining a very strong holistic impact.

Brett Pesce and Nurse have put together very similar campaigns so far this season. Out of all defensemen, Pesce ranks first in xGAR and seventh in GAR, proving his holistic impact, but what separates him from most other defensemen is his ability to generate offense for those around him. Pesce is currently third among defensemen in xGF/60, and in his age-26 season, that ranking could even rise.

While both Pesce and Nurse have put together outstanding seasons, this race is a complete runaway at this point. No defenseman has played even close to the level of Cale Makar in this portion of the shortened season. After a breakout rookie season, Makar has taken his game to a completely new level, leading all defensemen in GAR despite playing many fewer games than some other defensemen. More so than the other defensemen in consideration, Makar excels on both ends of the ice, currently posting a GF/60, CF/60, xGA/60, and CA/60 all one standard deviation greater than the mean. He tops off his elite two-way impact with utter dominance on the power play, making him arguably the best defenseman in the NHL and the clear favorite for the Norris Trophy.

Vezina Trophy:

Finalists: Jake Allen (MTL), Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK), Andrei Vasilevskiy

Winner: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB)

Carey Price is no longer the best goaltender on the Montreal Canadiens. That title belongs to Jake Allen. After coming over from the St. Louis Blues, Allen has excelled in his first eight-game sample with the Canadiens. His 4.65 GSAx ranks fifth among goaltenders who have played at least five games and second in Save % Above Expected. Although Allen’s workload has not resembled the duties of a traditional starting goaltender, he has greatly exceeded expectations, placing him third on our Vezina ballot.

What a rebound season this is for Marc-Andre Fleury. After deservedly losing the starting job to Robin Lehner, Fleury has taken it back with authority. After posting the fifth-worst GSAx last season (-14.03), he now ranks second in the same statistic, with a GSAx of 9.03, holding a comfortable lead over the third-highest goaltender. Add in the fact that Fleury ranks third in Save % Above Expected, and we have a clearcut Vezina Trophy candidate.

After several seasons of overvalued production, Vasilevskiy is finally living up to—and frankly, exceeding—expectations this season. His 12.92 GSAx is at least 3.84 higher than any other goaltender’s. Additionally, he leads the NHL in Save % Above Expected, posting a Save % 2.038 percentage points greater than what it should be given the quality and quantity of his shots faced. After an extremely disappointing 2019-20 season, Vasilevskiy is back as one of the league’s best goaltenders.

Calder Memorial Trophy:

Finalists: Kirill Kaprizov (MIN), Kevin Lankinen (CHI), Igor Shesterkin (NYR)

Winner: Kevin Lankinen (CHI)

The Calder Trophy race features a pair of goaltenders and a breakout star. In third place comes Igor Shesterkin. After emerging as a very strong goaltender last year, Shesterkin has continued to perform at a high level. His 1.82 GSAx is indicative of a valuable asset, and his 

GAR of 5.2 ranks thirteenth among goaltenders. Shesterkin has gotten off to a strong start to his career, and we likely have yet to see the best of him at this point in his career.

“Kirill the Thrill” has lived up to every bit of hype this season after joining the league as one of the top prospects. His GAR of 6 is 1.5 higher than any other rookie skaters, and his xGAR of 4.9 is also 15 higher than any other skater’s. Where Kirill Kaprizov has excelled this season is his finishing ability, for he ranks sixth among all skaters in GF/60. One of the best players on one of the best teams in the NHL, Kaprizov has as much potential as almost any player in the league.

While analysts regarded the two runners-up as high prospects, Lankinen, our winner, has been more of a surprise. Nonetheless, Lankinen has guided the Blackhawks to seemingly unprecedented success this season. With a 4.5 GSAx, Lankinen ranks ninth among all goaltenders in that statistic, and his 10 GAR is fourth among goaltenders. It remains to be seen whether or not Lankinen can overcome the apparently natural inconsistencies that goaltenders tend to face, but as of now, he has certainly been the best rookie this season.

Selke Trophy:

Finalists: Jack Eichel (BUF), Calle Jarnkrok (NSH), Vladislav Namestnikov (DET)

Winner: Calle Jarnkrok (NSH)

It has been a strange season for Jack Eichel. On a struggling team, with trade rumors circulating, Eichel has seen his production remain strong but completely change in terms of where his impact comes from. This season, Eichel’s defensive production has comfortably exceeded his offensive production, so much so that he is in contention for the Selke Trophy. Fifth in Defensive Goals Above Replacement (Def) and sixth in Expected Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xDef), both among forwards, Eichel has been among the league’s top defensive forwards this season. More specifically, with the fourth greatest xGA/60 and the fifth greatest CA/60 out of all forwards, Eichel has displayed his world-class ability to prevent opposing scoring chances.

An under-the-radar pickup this offseason, Vladislav Namestnikov has become one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL. Namestnikov leads all forwards in Def, which exhibits his excellent prevention of opposing goals, and he ranks sixth among forwards in xDef, which speaks volumes for his strong capabilities when limiting opposing attacks. A bright spot on a poor team, Namestnikov has proven his worth as one of the more underrated players in the NHL, especially on the defensive end of the ice.

Jarnkrok has truthfully flown under the radar on an elite defensive forward this season. Leading all forwards in xDef and ranking second among forwards in Def, Jarnkrok has had easily the best defensive impact among any forward this year. He tops it off by having the second greatest xGA/60 among forwards, further showing his value in the defensive zone. The Selke Trophy race is completely up in the air, but at this point, Jarnkrok is the top option in our opinion.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey or MoneyPuck and are accurate at the time of writing.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.