Barry Trotz has a decision to make. Who should play on the Islanders first line?

16 Islanders forwards have played at least 25 minutes this season. Three of them have been far less valuable than the other 13: Ross Johnston, Leo Komarov and Austin Czarnik. Of the sixteen forwards, these three rank dead last in Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (GAR/60) and should not receive much playing time in the near future.

One of the team’s most valuable forwards on and off the ice, Anders Lee, will be sidelined for the rest of the season with a torn ACL, leaving the Islanders with 12 forwards with whom to work for the time being.

The Islanders’ second line, which has consisted of Brock Nelson, Anthony Beauvillier and Josh Bailey for most of the season, has had a very strong season. Their Expected Goals per 60 Minutes (xG/60) is 8 percent above league average on offense and 28 percent below league average on defense, making them a clearcut above-average line in the NHL on both ends of the ice.

The Islanders’ famous fourth line, consisting of Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin, has not exceeded expectations, but they have been solid enough to remain together after developing chemistry for years.

That leaves the first and the third line as the ones that Trotz realistically could alter. Mathew Barzal will remain the first-line center, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau will remain the third-line center. Barzal and Eberle should play together, for their offensive production together is 37 percent above league average and their defensive production together is 26 percent more valuable than league average, per xG/60.

However, with Bellows on the left wing, the trio’s offensive xG/60 is 23 percent below league average. They have struggled, with the exception of some nice individual effort from Bellows.

Although playing with such dominant players is valuable for Bellows’s experience, and despite Bellows’s defensive value on this line, the Islanders likely cannot continue to win at a consistent rate if their first line continues to produce at a below-average level on offense.

Furthermore, the optimal spot for Bellows is on the wing of third-line center Jean-Gabriel Pageau. That leaves two players, Oliver Wahlstrom and Michael Dal Colle, one of which should play on the first line while the other plays on the third line.

On one hand, Dal Colle has played primarily left wing, while Wahlstrom has played primarily right wing, so it would make sense to put Dal Colle on the first line and Wahlstrom on the third line. On the other hand, the first line is the Islanders’ most productive source of offense, so placing Dal Colle, who has a negative Offensive Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (Off/60), on the first line instead of Wahlstrom, who leads the team in that statistic, seems illogical. So, what should Trotz do?

My answer to this question may be a bit unpopular, but I believe that it is in the best interest of the Islanders to give true left-wing Dal Colle the opportunity to prove himself on the first line, but with little room for error. Wahlstrom likely will be one of the key components to the Islanders’ success for years to come, and I have the utmost confidence that he will play with Barzal soon enough. However, it is absolutely worth experimenting with Dal Colle on Barzal’s wing, for it might be the boost that the former fifth overall pick needs to turn himself into a valuable offensive asset.

It remains to be seen if the Islanders acquire a replacement for Lee, but for now, it is Michael Dal Colle’s time to shine.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey or HockeyViz and are accurate as of Saturday, March 20. All images are courtesy of the National Hockey League.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.