Islanders advanced statistics are sometimes are difficult conversation to have in the Long Island community. The information is creeping more and more into hockey every year, with cap crunches forcing teams to navigate the market carefully and think through every little decision made.

In this new culture, there is sometimes a dismissal of what people call “the eye test.” Pretty much, does a player or team look like they’re doing a good job on the ice. Though, there is a place for advanced statistics to inform classic scouting methods.

While watching the Islanders this season, it looked like the Islanders were dominating teams that they beat and kept things close when they lost. Of course, there are outliers.

The second game of the season was a blowout 5-0 loss to the New York Rangers and the Islanders have escaped overtime with a win more than a few times. But, in general, the Islanders looked more efficient to my eyes than I’ve seen in recent years.

So, I dug into the data.

Utilizing hockey-reference.com’s fantastic database, I was able to list on a spreadsheet every Islanders game from the 2013-14 season up until today. Not including yesterday, that was 613 games. I then calculated the average difference in “goals for” and “goals against” for wins and losses in a season. 

Every season then has an “Average Win Intensity” (AWI) and “Average Loss Intensity” (ALI). If you have a lower ALI, it means when the team loses, they keep it close and the inverse when the statistic is higher. A lower AWI would indicate when a team wins they do it by the skin of their teeth and a higher AWI would show that when a team wins its typically a blowout. 

AWI: How many goals the Islanders won by

ALI: How many goals the Islanders lost by

Subtracting the Average Loss Intensity from the Average Win Intensity would indicate overall team play. If you’re maximizing AWI and minimizing ALI, you’re going to have a better score on this variable: Average Game Intensity (AGI). 

AGI: How the Islanders are playing based on how much they win and lose by

This year’s season, according to this statistic, has been one of their best of the past eight years.

Over the past eight seasons, the New York Islanders have held an average AWI 2.029. This season, it’s 2.474, their highest of the past eight years.

For ALI, the average over the last 8 years for the Islanders has been 2.060. This season, it’s an even 2, their second lowest of the past eight years.

For AGI, which is ALI subtracted from AWI, the average over the past eight years has been -0.008. Which means that, on average, the Islanders have lost by a larger margin than they would typically win by. This season though, the AWI is currently at 0.474. This isn’t just the highest, it’s higher by .450. This season has had the best intensity by far for the New York Islanders.

When the Islanders win, they make it known. When they lose, they keep it close. This translating to wins is intuitive, third period collapses are harder when you’re up by a decent margin. On the other side of the coin, it’s easier to come back when you’re keeping games close. This season’s win percentage, so far, is the highest of the last eight years. 

With the Islanders playing so above their average according to advanced statistics, there are two outcomes. One is fantastic, the other is a little scary. First, the Islanders could just be playing better hockey than they ever have in the last eight years. Doing well defensively preventing goals and offensively creating goals. Or, the less desirable answer for Islanders fans, the second half of the season could be a scary regression to the mean. Only time can give that answer. 

John Smark