Analytics Corner: Analyzing Potential Islanders Trade Options

The New York Islanders have proven themselves as an elite hockey team, but do they have what it takes to hoist the Stanley Cup?

A month ago, this would have been a ridiculous question, but an injury to captain Anders Lee has made the Islanders vulnerable. They need external help to regain their status as a true Stanley Cup contender. Let’s explore possible trade options for the Islanders.

Taylor Hall

A former first overall draft pick, Hall dominated the NHL in 2017-18, winning the Hart Memorial Trophy as league MVP. However, since then, he has been quite disappointing for three NHL teams. His three-season weighted averages tell a variety of stories.

Hall’s even-strength offensive production is in the 98th percentile, and his power-play production is in the 80th percentile, two marks that prove his continued offensive dominance. However, this dominance comes exclusively in the form of playmaking, as his finishing ability, the extent to which he scores goals better than other players, ranks in the 0th percentile. His defense is not much better, as his even-strength defense is in the ninth percentile.

Taylor Hall

As he approaches age 30, Hall is becoming a one-dimensional player. However, this dimension, playmaking, could be extremely useful for the Islanders. Especially on Mathew Barzal’s wing, Hall could develop strong chemistry with the crafty center while reuniting with his former teammate, Jordan Eberle. Additionally, working with defensive-minded coach Barry Trotz could spark personal growth in Hall’s defensive abilities. He’s among the best possible trade options for the Islanders, but Hall would need to be far more well-rounded to make a deal worthwhile.

Kyle Palmieri

In terms of three-season weighted averages, Palmieri’s numbers are quite solid across the board and could be the goal-scorer that the Islanders need to replace Anders Lee, perhaps their most lethal goal-scoring threat.

He is an above average offensive and defensive player at even-strength, combined with elite––specifically, 95th percentile––power-play production and extremely strong––specifically, 80th percentile––finishing prowess.

Kyle Palmieri

While three-season weighted averages turn three sets of numbers into one, it is important to look at the trajectory of Palmieri’s play to accurately estimate his potential impact on the Islanders. Whereas he was in approximately the 98th percentile in wins above replacement (WAR) in 2018-19 and in approximately the 90th percentile in WAR in 2019-20, he is currently near the second percentile this year. The Islanders are looking for a rental, and Palmieri does not present himself as a viable option given that they only need him for a year in which he is struggling.

Filip Forsberg

Although he does not have the reputation that Hall has, Forsberg has been a far better player in recent years. His three-season weighted averages reveal a really strong offensive contributor, with percentiles in in the 80s, and a solid source of defense (44th percentile, even-strength defense). Unlike Hall, Forsberg has established himself as a very good goal-scorer in the NHL, as his finishing ability is in the 64th percentile.

Filip Forsberg
Feb 27, 2021; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Nashville Predators left wing Filip Forsberg (9) takes a shot on goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the third period at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

While his numbers across the board are extremely valuable, there is one minor detail that should put Forsberg over the top as the best of the  trade options for general manager Lou Lamoriello and the New York Islanders. His penalty production, which marks the value he adds to his team based on the penalties he draws and the penalties he takes, is in the 98th percentile. This mark speaks volumes for his discipline as a player, further proving why he would fit perfectly on Barry Trotz’s New York Islanders.

The Islanders are in a unique position. They have a chance to go after a player who could turn them into not only a Stanley Cup contender but maybe even the favorite to win it all.

We will see what Lamoriello decides to do, but of all the Islanders trade options, Forsberg is clearly the best. He might be expensive, but in the midst of the Islanders’ championship window, Lamoriello should do everything he can to make sure Forsberg ends up on Long Island by the trade deadline.

 

All statistics are from TopDownHockey and JFresh Hockey and are accurate at the time of writing.

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