The NHL postseason race is beginning to heat up and so is the NHL Awards race. After careful consideration, Drive4Five contributor Kush Malhotra and I have come up with our March NHL Awards leaders at this point in the season.

Hart Memorial Trophy:

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB)
   1. 25.4 Goals Above Replacement (1st among goaltenders)
2. Connor McDavid (EDM)
   1. 17.9 Goals Above Replacement (1st among skaters)
   2. 16.8 Expected Goals Above Replacement (2nd among skaters)
3. Auston Matthews (TOR)
   1. 11.4 Goals Above Replacement (7th among skaters)
   2. 18.5 Expected Goals Above Replacement (1st among skaters)

At the beginning of the season, the Hart Trophy race featured some peculiar candidates — players who usually do not contend for such a prestigious award. However, we are now at a point where the Hart Trophy candidates are the usual suspects, arguably the two best skaters in the NHL and the second-best goaltender in our opinions. Vasilevskiy is having a spectacular bounce-back season for the Lightning, and he has been so much more valuable than every other goaltender that he deserves the Hart Trophy. McDavid and Matthews have excelled this year and could easily find themselves at the very top of this list in our next edition.

James Norris Memorial Trophy:

1. Cale Makar (COL)
   1. 1.156 Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (1st among defensemen, min TOI = 600)
   2. 0.87 Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (2nd among defensemen, min TOI = 600)
2. Samuel Girard (COL)
   1. 0.781 Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (4th among defensemen, min TOI = 600)
   2. 0.811 Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (5th among defensemen, min TOI = 600)
3. Devon Toews (COL)
   1. 0.835 Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (2nd among defensemen, min TOI = 600)
   2. 0.711 Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (9th among defensemen, min TOI = 600)

The Colorado Avalanche, known somewhat for their high-flying offense, have produced not one, not two, but three Norris Trophy candidates this season — an absurd reality. All three have broken out, and all three likely will improve in their future. Makar has dominated on a per-game basis, but Girard and Toews have excelled over a long period of time. Because this award goes to the “best” defenseman, not the “most valuable” defenseman, we have deemed Makar to be the most deserving candidate, although the others have an extremely strong case as well.

Vezina Trophy:

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB)
   1. 15.84 Goals Saved Above Expected per Evolving-Hockey (1st)
   2. 21 Goals Saved Above Expected per MoneyPuck (1st)
2. Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)
   1. 12.5 Goals Saved Above Expected per Evolving-Hockey (3rd)
   2. 18.1 Goals Saved Above Expected per MoneyPuck (2nd)
3. Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK)
   1. 13.46 Goals Saved Above Expected per Evolving-Hockey (2nd)
   2. 12.4 Goals Saved Above Expected per MoneyPuck (3rd)

Three goaltenders, three excellent seasons but three drastically different narratives crack our Vezina Trophy race. Vasilevskiy, our clearcut frontrunner, has been widely regarded as the league’s top goaltender for years but is actually coming off of an extremely poor season. Hellebuyck was our Hart Trophy pick last season and has followed his excellent 2019-2020 campaign with a brilliant 2021 season. Fleury came into the season as the backup goaltender for the Vegas Golden Knights but is having a career season. While all three goaltenders have dominated throughout the season, Vasilevskiy’s numbers trump all others, rendering him our Vezina Trophy pick.

Calder Memorial Trophy:

1. Kirill Kaprizov (MIN)
   1. 0.595 Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (2nd among rookie skaters, min TOI = 500)
   2. 0.877 Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (1st among rookie skaters, min TOI = 500)
2. Igor Shesterkin (NYR)
   1. 0.691 Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (2nd among rookie goaltenders, min TOI 500)
3. Pius Suter (CHI)
   1. 0.568 Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (3rd among rookie skaters, min TOI = 500)
   2. 0.591 Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (2nd among rookie skaters, min TOI = 500)

To most, Kaprizov is the runaway Calder Trophy winner. While he almost definitely will win the award, multiple other rookies — most notably, Shesterkin and Suter — have strong cases. These three candidates have quite similar impact statistics, and any of them realistically can jump to the top of this list. However, at this point, Kaprizov’s offensive dominance for the Minnesota Wild has been astounding, and he should be voted as the top rookie so far.

Selke Trophy:

1. Calle Jarnkrok (NSH)
   1. 0.409 Defensive Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (1st among forwards, min TOI = 500)
   2. 0.449 Expected Defensive Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (2nd among forwards, min TOI = 500)
2. Joe Pavelski (DAL)
   1. 0.29 Defensive Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (9th among forwards, min TOI = 500)
   2. 0.286 Expected Defensive Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (10th among forwards, min TOI = 500)
3. Nick Paul (OTT)
   1. 0.288 Defensive Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (10th among forwards, min TOI = 500)
   2. 0.333 Expected Defensive Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (3rd among forwards, min TOI = 500)

Perhaps the most undervalued award, the Selke Trophy usually features two-way juggernauts, such as Sean Couturier, Ryan O’Reilly and Patrice Bergeron. However, this year, the best defensive forwards have been primarily defensive-minded players. Jarnkrok clearly leads the way, preventing scoring chances and opposing attacks as well as any forward. Pavelski and Paul also have had great defensive seasons; the former has revitalized his career, primarily with his defense, and the latter should expand his reputation with his star-studded defensive play.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey or MoneyPuck and are accurate as of Saturday, April 10.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.