Evaluating NHL Playoffs Matchups for the New York Islanders
When the Islanders beat the Rangers on May 1 and the Rangers lost to the Capitals on May 3, the four teams representing the MassMutual East Division in the 2021 NHL playoffs were set.
As of May 5, the Islanders can still play any of the four teams: the Capitals, Penguins and Bruins.
Washington Capitals
WSH won season series 6-2
If the Islanders and Capitals meet in the first round of the NHL playoffs, it will be the second time Barry Trotz plays his former team in the playoffs since arriving in New York three seasons ago.
The Caps have had the Isles’ number this season, taking six of eight matchups in the regular season. However, that doesn’t tell the entire story.
Three of the six games were 1-0 outcomes, with two of them going to Washington. One of them was decided in the shootout. Additionally, the Islanders were competitive in the two games the teams played in January. The Islanders allowed the game-winning goal with 27 seconds left on Jan. 26 then blew a three-goal lead two nights later, losing 6-3.
Washington’s strength is its goal-scoring. They’ve scored the second-most goals in the entire NHL, and their power play, which is the third-best in the league, is a large part of the reason why.
However, they’ve allowed 157 goals this season, the most goals among playoff teams. John Carlson, arguably their best defenseman, is a -4 this year after recording +12 and +21 ratings the past two season. They’ve also utilized a goalie rotation more than they probably would have liked. Ilya Samsonov, their intended starter, had a bout with COVID-19 early in the season and ceded the net to Vitek Vanacek. The rookie has 19 wins this season after four campaigns with the AHL’s Hershey Bears.
If the Islanders can exploit this weakness, as they did when they beat the Capitals eight times on April 1, then they can surely get past them in the first round of the NHL playoffs.
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Pittsburgh Penguins
PIT won season series 6-2
The Penguins also played well against the Islanders this season. They could be out for revenge in what would be the teams’ first playoff meeting since the Islanders swept the Penguins in the first round in 2018.
They have a good chance to do that because they’re playing some of their best hockey in recent years. The Pens lead the NHL in total goals with 187, or 3.46 per game. Sidney Crosby continues to play at an elite level. He’s scored 60 points so far this season and the team has gotten secondary scoring from wingers Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel. Evgeni Malkin is set to return from a lengthy lower-body injury as well. He was forming chemistry with winger Kasperi Kapanen before he was sidelined in March.
But like the Capitals, this team’s weakness is its defense. The Penguins had to deal with injuries to Brain Dumoulin and Mike Matheson. Even though goalie Tristian Jarry is among the league leaders in wins, his peripheral stats are average at best. He has a 2.71 goals against average and a .911 save percentage in 38 games. Neither of those numbers is among the top-25 in their respective categories.
When the Islanders lost to the Penguins this season, on average, they allowed more goals than they usually surrender. The Penguins outscored the Islanders by a combined score of 23-13 in all six of the Penguins’ victories. They allowed at least four goals in four of those games. Beating the Penguins requires a similar strategy to beating the Capitals, tight defense.
Boston Bruins
NYI leads season series 5-2
The Islanders and Bruins have had an interesting season series. The Islanders won the first five matchups, including a 7-2 blowout on Feb. 25. Then, the Islanders lost the two matchups after the trade deadline.
The Bruins landed the most coveted trade deadline prize, Taylor Hall. The former league MVP struggled in Buffalo but is scoring at nearly a point-per-game pace since arriving in Boston. Perhaps it’s because he’s sheltered on the second line with David Krejci, but the deal has worked out so far for the Bruins nevertheless.
The Bruins and Islanders are very similar teams in terms of playing style. The Bruins have scored eight more goals than the Isles and have allowed only five more than them. They have a Vezina-caliber goalie in Tuukka Rask, a Norris Trophy candidate in Charlie McAvoy and arguably the best first line in the NHL.
Their weakness is their scoring depth. Their current bottom-six has a combined 69 points, compared to 66 between Penguins’ depth players Jared McCann, Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese. The addition of Taylor Hall helps Boston’s scoring depth, but the Islanders need to utilize theirs if they want to beat them in the playoffs.
The Islanders got depth scoring against them in the regular season. Third line center J-G Pageau has eight points in the seven games against the Bruins this season. Anthony Beauvillier and Oliver Wahlstrom also have two goals each. The Islanders will need this and more to emerge victorious against the Bruins, or any team in round one of the NHL playoffs.
Born and raised on Long Island. Isles fan since 2009. Studying journalism at the University of Maryland, College Park.
