Analytics Corner: Barry Trotz Should Break up the Fourth Line
For years, Barry Trotz and the Islanders had the best fourth line in hockey. Now, their fourth line should not remain together.
By trading for forwards Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac, the Islanders have gained immense forward depth. However, since the trade, the team has gone through a concerning skid, ending the regular season 7-7-3. Their offense has not been much help, scoring barely over two goals per game. Despite the slide in the standings, the Islanders still earned a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Now, there is no room for a goal-scoring drought.
At this point, to have any success in the playoffs, the Islanders need to run three dominant offensive forward lines. However, with the injury of Anders Lee, the Islanders have only nine strong offensive options: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson, Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Oliver Wahlstrom, Kyle Palmieri, and… Kieffer Bellows.
Among Islanders forwards, Bellows ranks fifth in Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes and Offensive Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes. Despite a few seemingly poor games, which led Barry Trotz to bench him, Bellows has made the most of his playing time and deserves the chance to be an integral part of the Islanders’ offensive scheme in the postseason.
That brings us to the fourth line, where we have four players to fill three spots. Casey Cizikas has had a down season but still deserves to center the fourth line. Matt Martin has been among the Islanders’ best defensive forwards this season, earning himself a spot on the left of Cizikas. On the right wing, Trotz should play Travis Zajac, the best offensive option on this line, which leaves veteran forward Cal Clutterbuck out of the mix.
In past years, taking Clutterbuck out of the lineup would have seemed nonsensical. The team lacked forward depth, and Clutterbuck was a huge part of the fourth line. However, Zajac is an upgrade over Clutterbuck, and the team needs offensive production too much to bring a fourth-line player up to the third line.
As a unit, “the E = MC^2 line,” or “the identity line,” has had an extremely average season. Offensively their Expected Goals per 60 Minutes (xG/60) was 21% below league average. That said, their xG/60 on the defensive end was also 20% below league average, resulting in overall league-average production. But the Islanders have the chance to improve this line, and they should capitalize on this opportunity.
Anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In 2020, despite ending the regular season on a seven-game losing streak, the Islanders found themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals. But the Islanders cannot rely on another postseason surge. Splitting up the fourth line can provide a spark with which to shock the world.
All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey or HockeyViz.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.
