The New York Islanders enter the 2021-22 season without Jordan Eberle, their first-line right wing of the last few seasons. He leaves the Island after four years, 26.1 Goals Above Replacement (GAR) per Evolving-Hockey and countless memories – most notably, his overtime goal in Game 5 of the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals.

While every NHL team lost a player to the Seattle Kraken this offseason, few teams lost what the Islanders lost. Before Eberle’s departure, Evolving-Hockey projected him to finish fourth on the Islanders in GAR in 2021-22 with 7.5. To make matters worse for the Islanders, Eberle ranks in the 85th percentile in JFresh and TopDownHockey’s three-year weighted Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Losing an 85th-percentile player is an easy way to fall short of the heights reached in the past two seasons.

The Islanders could have opted to protect Eberle, but they offered Seattle the option to draft him or Josh Bailey, both of whom have larger contracts than the protected Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin. Given their previous salary dumps of Nick Leddy and Andrew Ladd, this was the Islanders’ final signal that they were looking to create salary cap space to sign RFAs Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech and Ilya Sorokin and UFAs Kyle Palmieri, Casey Cizikas and Zach Parise. That said, while the Islanders have brought back the vast majority of their players from the 2021 season, the loss of Eberle does not come without a ripple effect.

The Islanders never matched their former star center, John Tavares, with the ideal winger. Perhaps, they have put their current star center, Mathew Barzal, in the same situation. JFresh and TopDownHockey’s model places Eberle in the 97th percentile of Even-Strength Offensive WAR. Additionally, Barzal and Eberle ranked fifth among all forward duos in Expected Goals For (xGF) together. Losing this dynamic duo could set the Islanders back a few notches in terms of offensive production at even strength.

However, as one door closes, another door opens. Instead of placing Kyle Palmieri, Josh Bailey or Zach Parise – players on the downswing of their careers – alongside Barzal and Anders Lee, the Islanders should capitalize on the opportunity to give young star Oliver Wahlstrom first-line minutes. Whereas Palmieri’s primary offensive contributions come right in front of the net – as do Anders Lee’s – Wahlstrom would add a far more unique skill set to the first line. Wahlstrom has one of the most effective shots on the Islanders, one that can find the back of the net from nearly anywhere in the offensive zone.

Eberle’s departure raises questions about the Islanders’ potential in the upcoming season, but that is not necessarily an issue. Far greater players have left the Island in recent years, and the Islanders have consistently found ways to adapt. We are in the midst of a new era of Islanders hockey, so while the Islanders community surely will miss Eberle, their next-man-up mentality will always keep them in contention for the Stanley Cup.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.