A collective buy-in to the team’s disciplined identity and strict emphasis on structure has carried the Islanders to consecutive semifinals appearances. But what can take them even further?

Many will label the Islanders as a team that outperforms its talent, but an improved utilization of their talent, particularly on the offensive end, can catapult the Islanders into one of the league’s best offensive teams in hockey.

First and foremost, the Islanders have a wide variety of offensive assets, and arranging them in the ideal combinations would be a catalyst of success. For instance, Oliver Wahlstrom, who portrayed brilliance in offensive scenarios last season, finishing in the 93rd percentile in three-year-weighted Power-Play Offense (PPO) and the 87th-percentile in three-year-weighted Finishing, likely was not utilized in an optimal environment at even strength, given his 24th percentile three-year-weighted Even-Strength Offense (EVO).

Wahlstrom’s shot maps show that his finishing impact does not come primarily in front of the net, like Anders Lee’s does. He also does not pose as the quarterback of a line, for his playdriving was in the 65th percentile last year, per Andy & Rono, like Mathew Barzal does. Thus, he poses as the ideal right wing alongside Lee and Barzal, for he brings a scoring touch from anywhere in the offensive zone that would diversify Barzal’s playmaking options and create additional space for Lee in front of the net. This trio would bring out the best in each linemate, while fostering Wahlstrom’s growth into a top scorer in the NHL.

The next move Barry Trotz should make is to bring in a power-play quarterback. It just so happens that the Islanders have a defense opening entering training camp, so there is room for a power-play quarterback in the starting lineup. Losing Nick Leddy damages the power play, as he was their most impactful defenseman on the man advantage, but the Islanders may have found a potential solution, as they have brought in Erik Gustafsson, who is a 74th-percentile power-play option, on a PTO. Gustafsson could do wonders for the offense. Neither Ryan Pulock nor Noah Dobson has proven effective on the power play, so there is certainly room for improvement in this department, regardless of whether it comes in the form of a free-agent signing or a trade.

The last ingredient to an improved offense pertains to zone starts. While Barry Trotz did an excellent job starting the Islanders’ offensive-minded forwards in the offensive zone and their defensive-minded forwards in the defensive zone, he could optimize his offensive production by playing the Islanders’ top defense pair––consisting of Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech––in the offensive zone more frequently. While their defensive impact is undeniable, they are the two best offensive defensemen on the Islanders by a significant margin; Pulock and Pelech are in the 70th and 80th percentile in three-year-weighted EVO, respectively, while no other everyday defenseman on the Islanders is above the 30th percentile in such statistic. Additionally, it is worth noting that all Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Noah Dobson, Scott Mayfield, and Andy Greene are higher in three-year-weighted Even-Strength Defense (EVD) than in three-year-weighted EVO, so Pulock and Pelech’s offensive contributions are much more valuable than their defensive contributions, relative to the rest of the defense core.

The Islanders are undoubtedly one of the most disciplined teams in the NHL, but that does not mean they cannot be among the most talented as well. With the potential aforementioned improvements, the Islanders should be in a position to contend for the Stanley Cup.

All statistics are from JFresh Hockey and TopDownHockey unless otherwise indicated.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.