The New York Islanders’ identity of four extremely balanced forward lines is what makes the team such a threat. Although it is clear that Mathew Barzal is the best player on the team coming into the 2021-2022 NHL season, there are plenty of lesser-known Islanders who can make a big splash to propel the team. Let’s dive into the underlying metrics of three Islanders forwards to examine their potential impact.

The first forward to analyze is offseason pickup Zach Parise. Through his nine years in Minnesota, Parise was always stronger offensively than defensively. That said, the magnitude of his offensive impact has always outweighed that of his defensive impact; in each season since 2007-2008, Parise’s Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) has been above 50%. Although his better years may be behind him, his experience on the ice can be crucial for all the surrounding young players. Additionally, through joining Trotz’s system well-rounded, disciplined hockey, Parise will have an accessible path to improving his defense. Although Parise’s line remains to be determined, the third line needs a wing; if he ends up there and develops his two-way game, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

One forward who should play a vital role on the team this year is Oliver Wahlstrom. Through a relatively small sample last season, he was extremely dominant. Beyond his seemingly routine scoring, Wahlstrom was top-seven among Islanders in Individual Expected Goals (ixG) and first among forwards in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). These statistics clearly show that, despite playing in his rookie season, Wahlstrom was remarkably effective in creating scoring opportunities and preventing them. With Jordan Eberle’s departure, Wahlstrom has a clear path to playing time with Mathew Barzal and Anders Lee in what would be an incredible opportunity for him and the Islanders. 

One final forward who is worth watching is Casey Cizikas. Cizikas signed a six-year, $15 million contract extension, a team-friendly deal in AAV and a player-friendly deal in term. While Cizikas has been an invaluable asset to the Islanders for years, his offense really went downhill last season. Although he does not commonly serve as a source of offense, his Goals For per 60 Minutes (GF/60) and Expected Goals For per 60 Minutes (xGF/60) were over a standard deviation below average. To make matters worse, his defensive production took at hit last season as well. In the 2019-2020 season, his Expected Goals Against per 60 Minutes (xGA/60) and his Corsi Against per 60 Minutes (CA/60) were over two standard deviations above average; however, in 2020-2021, they were nearly half of a standard deviation above average. Although last season was undoubtedly a down year, his low AAV in contending years coupled with his leadership and likely positive regression should make him a positive-impact player for the team this season.

*All Statistics are from Evolving-Hockey

John Smark