As the Islanders continue their search for their fifth Stanley Cup––a drive for five––their success will depend on Ilya Sorokin more than ever before. Entering his sophomore season, a crucial period of development for the young goaltender, Sorokin must not only avoid a slump but also seek a boost in production. How can the Islanders foster Sorokin’s breakout?

For a glaring example of what not to do, look no further than within the Metropolitan Division. Once considered the poster child for young goaltenders in the NHL, Carter Hart is now surrounded by questions about his ability to maintain a starting role.

Although the entirety of Hart’s 2021 season was beyond brutal, one stretch covered the majority of his struggles. Between March 2 and March 25, the Philadelphia Flyers played 14 games; Hart played in 10 of them. In each of the ten games, Hart’s Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) was negative, and his cumulative GSAx was a whopping -19.23. The only goaltenders who posted a worse total on the season were Hart (-24.34) and his teammate Brian Elliott (-20.25).

The fact that 79 percent of Hart’s GSAx came in 37 percent of his games––a stretch of consecutive games––shows that the Flyers mismanaged Hart’s playing time. Often noted as playing the most mentally strenuous position in hockey, goaltenders are best set up for success when they play with confidence. In Hart’s case, when his mental game rained, the team let it pour. Thus, the Islanders must ensure that Sorokin receives optimal rest and coaching after bad outings to position him for future success.

For successful goaltender development, look to the Vancouver Canucks and their development of Thatcher Demko. Demko played second fiddle to Jacob Markstrom for the majority of the 2019-2020 season but found unparalleled success on a per-game basis in the 2020 postseason. Despite playing only four games in the bubble, Demko finished with the second-highest GSAx (10.59).

How did the Canucks respond to his elite production? They let Markstrom walk in the off-season, granting Demko the keys to the starting role. Giving Demko an extra sense of confidence led to his seventh-place finish in GSAx in 2021. While the Islanders certainly should not trade Semyon Varlamov, they should increase Sorokin’s playing time if he comes out of the game strong.

Sorokin is undoubtedly a talented goaltender, but development is key for any player. Put simply, the Islanders should pursue an active approach toward nurturing Sorokin’s development based on his performance in the early season. If he starts the season on a high note, the Islanders should show immense confidence in him. If he struggles out of the gate, they should give him the rest and coaching he needs to bounce back both physically and mentally. The sky’s the limit for Sorokin; it is time to convert his talent into production.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.