$5.5 million was too expensive for a first-line right-winger whose offensive impact complemented the uniquely effective production of the Islanders’ franchise center. However, $5 million was a worthy price for a 30-year-old power forward who was coming off of the worst season of his career.

These thoughts were sent into reality by Lou Lamoriello, as the Islanders entered the 2021-2022 season with Kyle Palmieri instead of Jordan Eberle on Mathew Barzal’s right-wing. Lamoriello’s decision to expose and consequently lose Eberle to the Seattle Kraken and to re-sign Palmieri has been one of the primary catalysts of the Islanders’ struggles this season.

To maximize Palmieri’s value to the Islanders, Barry Trotz must not play Palmieri on the same line as Anders Lee. Both players are power forwards who take the majority of their shots right in front of the net. Whereas the Lee-Barzal-Eberle line benefited greatly from the space that Barzal and Eberle created, a Lee-Barzal-Palmieri line would be far too concentrated in front of the net, limiting the unique capabilities of the speedy center.

Palmieri remains a strong force on the power-play. Since 2020, Palmieri has been a 77th percentile power-play forward. Palmieri should play on the Islanders’ primary power-play unit, and the Islanders should expect him to continue his high level of production on the man-advantage. Palmieri is also a valuable forward at even strength, producing in the 65th percentile.

Where Palmieri’s game has fallen off a cliff comes in the finishing department. From 2018-2019 to 2020-2021, Palmieri’s weighted Finishing was in the 76th percentile. From 2020-2021 to 2021-2022, his weighted Finishing is in the 1st percentile. Simply put, Palmieri has completely lost his scoring touch, and he appears unlikely to regain it on the wrong side of 30-years-old.

While Palmieri is likely due for some positive regression as a finisher, the Islanders must account for his lackluster scoring abilities when creating their lineup. From 2020-2021 to 2021-2022, Zach Parise is in the third percentile in Finishing. Thus, Parise and Palmieri should never play on the same line; regardless of its center, the line would score at an extremely unproductive rate, especially for a defensive liability. Rather, Palmieri should play alongside Anthony Beauvillier and Brock Nelson, a 76th percentile finisher and an 80th percentile finisher, respectively.

The Islanders rely heavily on aging players, generally a poor recipe for success. However, Palmieri, among others, still has areas of the game in which they can provide significant value. The role of the Islanders coaching staff is to ensure that Palmieri plays a role that maximizes his value — that role comes alongside Beauvillier and Nelson.

All statistics are from JFresh Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.