The longest-tenured Islander, Josh Bailey has been a mainstay in the Islanders lineup for more than a decade. He has performed well in certain high-leverage situations, cementing his place in Islanders history. In his physical prime, Bailey was an effective winger whose speed and agility supplemented his nuanced understanding of the game. However, Bailey is currently amid his age-32 season, and his lackluster production at even-strength is a strong indicator that his age has caught up to him.

Since the beginning of the 2020-2021 season, Bailey has been in the 2nd percentile in Even-Strength Offense and the 24th percentile in Even-Strength Defense. Bailey is league-average in the shooting department, so he relies somewhat heavily on his teammates to put the puck in the back of the net.

When the Islanders are completely healthy, Bailey plays alongside Brock Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier, two dynamic forwards who drive the play well and rely on both their speed and shot to generate offense. Bailey has yet to prove that he is capable of playing up to tempo with both players, and thus he cannot remain on the Islanders’ second line.

Bailey partially salvages his struggles at even strength with his 82nd percentile power-play production. However, his Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) this season lies at -2.3, in front of only Zdeno Chara among Islanders. Bailey’s production is not representative of not only a second-line forward but also a skater on a contending team. His holistic performance has been detrimental to the Islanders, and until he provides reason to believe that he can turn his game around, it is time for the Islanders to explore alternative options.

Kieffer Bellows has excelled in his role as the Islanders’ thirteenth forward this season, and he deserves a promotion. While he is far more inexperienced than Bailey, the Islanders could benefit from his young age, and his speed would complement the strengths of Nelson and Beauvillier. Additionally, Bellows has posted an Expected Even-Strength Defensive Goals Above Replacement (xEVD) of 0.7 in his limited minutes, a clear indication of his maturity and development as a player.

Austin Czarnik is another player who has earned more opportunities to prove his value––having posted a 0.7 xGAR in only six games. There is no guarantee that Czarnik produces at a high level, but Bailey’s play has been declining for multiple years, so there is a legitimate reason to believe that Czarnik, who has outperformed Bailey this season, will continue this trend.

The Islanders have constructed a competitive roster, but their 2021-2022 season has been a colossal failure thus far. Scratching Bailey is not the entire solution to the problem, but it is certainly a start.

All statistics are from JFresh Hockey or Evolving-Hockey and are as of Dec. 29, 2021.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.