A common perception of the post-John Tavares New York Islanders is their success is heavily reliant on the production of their fourth line, featuring Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck. Regardless of the validity of this premise in years past, one truth has become strikingly apparent: the Islanders’ fourth line is a shell of what it used to be.

Clutterbuck and Martin are the two older members of the line, and have been in their 30s for multiple years. Their production declined along the standard aging curve. While both players can provide value in specific situations, neither player has been a holistically valuable player for quite some time now. Ever since Cizikas entered the wrong side of thirty, his production has tumbled as well.

Since Cizikas’s decline began, his offensive game has deteriorated. Since the beginning of the season, Cizikas has dropped from the 28th percentile in Even-Strength Offense –– measured over the last two seasons –– to the 15th percentile. Additionally, he has fallen from the 41st percentile in Finishing to the 16th percentile. In some capacity, age has caught up to Cizikas and its limited his offensive capabilities. Consequently, his overall value, measured in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), has fallen accordingly –– from the 56th percentile to the 29th percentile.

However, Cizikas remains one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL, sitting in the 84th percentile in Even-Strength Defense and the 94th percentile on the penalty kill. Although Cizikas is not the offensive player he used to be, his production in defensive situations is still extremely effective. Thus, Cizikas’s seemingly disastrous decline in WAR is not merely a reflection of his talent; his usage is a key factor as well.

Because of the Islanders’ fourth line’s lackluster offensive production, they should never start shifts in the offensive zone. Although their Offensive Zone Starts are currently the lowest on the team, per Hockey-Reference, there is no reason for them to begin in the offensive zone even 30 percent of the time. Additionally, there are clear instances in which the defensive capabilities of the fourth line can be useful –– when playing a very strong forward line, such as the Bruins’ first line, for instance. However, against teams that struggle offensively, their playing time should be severely limited.

Ultimately, the Islanders should have faith in the fourth line’s defensive abilities. But before each shift, they must ask themselves: when is defense most necessary? When the answer to that question does not feature the moment at hand, the fourth line should remain on the bench.

All statistics are from JFresh Hockey, unless otherwise indicated.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.