Analytics Corner: Islanders Will Get More From Kyle Palmieri
It should be no secret that the New York Islanders are currently experiencing the downside of the gamble they took on Kyle Palmieri after signing the power forward to a four-year $20 million deal. The Islanders trusted Palmieri to replace Jordan Eberle as the first-line right winger, and Palmieri has fallen well short of expectations.
Palmieri, 30 at the time of the signing, has struggled to gain any traction as an offensive force in the Islanders’ system — which, due to his struggles in 2020-2021, is hardly a surprise. Despite heading to the Islanders after a midseason trade, Palmieri finished with the third lowest Goals Above Replacement (GAR) on the New Jersey Devils in 2020-2021. Furthermore, despite playing only 17 regular season games with the Islanders last season, Palmieri finished with the lowest GAR on the entire team.
Simply put, Lou Lamoriello made a dreadful mistake by signing Palmieri to a lucrative and lengthy contract after a significantly below replacement-level season, and currently, the Islanders are experiencing arguably the worst of all potential outcomes. Before Palmieri’s two-goal outing against the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday and power-play goal against the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday — both goals came in losses against bottom-seven teams in the NHL — he had scored just one goal all season.
After reaching the NHL semifinals in consecutive seasons, the Islanders undoubtedly held themselves to an extraordinarily high standard entering the season. Now, they have a mere 6.1 percent chance at reaching the Stanley Cup Playoffs, per MoneyPuck. “Underwhelming” hardly begins to describe the Islanders’ struggles this season, and Palmieri’s lackluster production is one of their primary sources.
Nonetheless, there is reason to believe that there is light at the end of the tunnel for Palmieri. Per JFresh Hockey, Palmieri was near the 90th percentile in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2019-2020, but fell below the 25th percentile in 2020-2021. As of the All-Star Break, he was in the 5th percentile this season. Among the three primary components of WAR — offense, defense, and finishing — Palmieri’s drastic decline in finishing most precisely resembles his decline in WAR. Thus, while Palmieri still generates chances at a high clip, he has capitalized on them at a much lower rate in recent years.
One of the primary ideals in modern hockey analytics is the randomness in finishing — generally speaking, there is significant noise in the realization of the outcome of a shot attempt. Currently, Palmieri has registered -3.9 Goals Above Expected, per MoneyPuck, an indication that noise has negatively affected Palmieri’s finishing output this season.
While the extent to which Palmieri’s struggles can be attributed to bad luck requires significant further analysis — he is not a great skater, his effort has been questioned and he frequently shoots the puck right into the logo of opposing goalies — two truths prevail: Palmieri should expect positive regression to the mean as a goal scorer and Palmieri is not as strong of a goal scorer as he was two seasons ago. Although reviving the 2021-2022 season may be a lost cause, the Islanders can expect improved production from Palmieri has he finishes out his contract on the Island.
All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise indicated.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.
