The New York Islanders were preseason Stanley Cup contenders, but failed to make the NHL playoffs this year.

The 13-game road trip, the compact schedule and COVID-19 were too much to overcome.

But my goal in this piece is to look at the bigger picture. There’s been plenty of time to evaluate the roster that Lou Lamoriello and Barry Trotz wanted to deploy most of the season. So let’s do just that.

5. Inability to Beat Good Teams

The Islanders were 11-28-3 against the 16 teams that made the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They beat one playoff team from October to December, a Boston Bruins team dealing with COVID-19. That statistic alone should be enough to disqualify the Islanders from the postseason. Even if you excuse the four games during the opening week of UBS Arena, the Islanders simply didn’t play well against the best teams in the NHL, even with a healthy roster.

The Islanders started the NHL season flat against the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers. Both teams exceeded expectations this season, but the Islanders simply didn’t play well against either team.

They also blew two leads in games against the Minnesota Wild and Tampa Bay Lightning in November, before half the team fell ill with COVID-19. Sure, the team was tired during the road trip, but the Tampa-game came after the team returned to Long Island for a road game against the Devils. Those were games one and three of the 11-game winless streak that ultimately doomed their season.

Then, they let a 3-2 third period lead slip against the Nashville Predators on Dec. 9 (we’ll get back to this game later). The Washington Capitals shut them out on home ice on Jan. 15. The Maple Leafs dominated them a week later on the night they honored Clark Gilles.

The struggles continued on the road in February, as the Islanders lost back-to-back games against the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. They also played arguably their worst game of the season on Feb. 26 against the Los Angeles Kings.

March was the team’s best month, but they dropped two matchups against the Colorado Avalanche. Winning at least one would’ve been helpful. Later that month, they had two more weak games against the Bruins and Lightning.

Finally, in April, they lost three games in a row to the Maple Leafs, Panthers and Rangers. They allowed three third period goals last Sunday, and lost 5-2 to the Carolina Hurricanes.

4. Defensive Lapses at the Ends of Games/Periods

I told you we’d come back to the Dec. 9 game against the Predators. Two nights after the Islanders snapped their 11-game winless streak against the Ottawa Senators, they played the Predators. The Islanders came into the third period tied 2-2, and Noah Dobson broke the tie just over five minutes in. For the first 12 minutes of the third, it looked like the Islanders finally found their stride. They were playing shut-down Islanders hockey. Then, with 7:29 to play, Yakov Trenin tied the game.

The Islanders were playing well enough to force overtime until a defensive lapse with under a minute to play led to Eeli Tolvanen’s game-winning goal. It came with 12 seconds left in the game.

The Islanders allowed 32 goals in the final two minutes of a game or period (not including overtime or empty netters). They were 11-15-3 in games where they allowed one or more of those goals. Essentially, 14% of the Islanders’ total goals against contributed to 44% of their regulation losses.

Wow.

Other games that stand out are the Nov. 15 matchup against the Lightning. The Islanders, despite blowing an early 1-0 lead, held a 1-1 tie through most of the first period. Anthony Cirelli broke the tie with 36 seconds left in the period. The Islanders couldn’t recover.

On Dec. 19, the Islanders also allowed the Vegas Golden Knights to tie the game with under a minute left in the game. The Golden Knights won the game in a shootout. The Islanders also allowed a tie-breaking goal against the Maple Leafs on Jan. 22 that turned out to be the game-winner.

Finally, as late as April 3, when the Islanders were still desperately fighting for a playoff spot, they allowed a tie-breaking goal to the Dallas Stars with 47 seconds left in the first period. The Islanders tied it but eventually lost on a third period goal from Radek Faksa.

Those games alone constitute seven points the Islanders didn’t need to lose.

3. Semyon Varlamov

Varlamov didn’t win an NHL game from Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals last summer until Dec. 16 against the Boston Bruins. Team injuries and COVID-19 aside, a goaltender who was supposed to have a Vezina-caliber season should’ve been able to steal a few games for the Isles.

He was in goal for that loss against the Predators (four goals against, .862 save percentage), as well as the Jan. 22 match against Toronto (three GA, .870 SV%). One of his worst games of the season came in an extremely winnable game against the Canucks on March 3. He and the Islanders blew a 3-2 lead en route to a 4-3 loss on home ice (four GA, .895 SV%). He also had an awful game on March 26 against Boston (six GA, .864 GA).

But he was streaky and had some good moments as well — notably a 3-0 shutout against the Rangers and another one against the Senators. His first win against the Bruins was the first of three incredibly strong games. The other two were a win against the Sabres and a loss to the Capitals.

What’s concerning, though, is his four-game losing streak in April. He lost 3-2 to the Stars (three GA, .925 SV%), 6-1 to the Blues (six GA, .806 SV%), 6-3 to the Rangers (six GA, .739 SV%) and 5-2 to the Hurricanes (three GA, .906 SV%). That’s not a Vezina Trophy-winning goalie. He needed to steal a few more games for the Islanders if they wanted to make the playoffs.

2. Zdeno Chara

We’ve written endlessly on this website about how awful of a replacement Zdeno Chara was for Nick Leddy. No disrespect to his work ethic and dedication to the game, but that alone won’t lead to success.

Chara looked slow out there. He missed defensive assignments and was sometimes forced to take penalties because he was caught flat-footed. A case in point is the Isles’ 6-3 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on Feb. 15. Chara lost a stick battle to Rasmus Asplund at his own blueline. He was already still, so the only way he could stop Asplund was to trip him. Chara went to the box and the Sabres scored on the power-play.

This was a trend all season long. Chara’s defensive analytics were hardly in the 50-70th percentile, according to The Athletic’s most recent player card. His goals saved above expected was in the 10-30th percentile. For a player making less than $800,000 per season, a market value of about $400,000 is not impressive at all.

Chara could’ve been effective in a bottom-pairing or seventh defenseman role. Instead, he played 71 games this season and was not once a healthy scratch. The truth is, the Islanders didn’t have a proven, better option. This one’s on Lamoriello, and finally finding an adequate replacement should be his top priority in the offseason.

1. A Stagnant Offense When it Mattered Most

The Islanders will finish the NHL season with roughly 2.78 goals per game. Most seasons, with a defensive structure like Trotz’s, that’ll be enough to squeak into the playoffs. The Kings (2.87) and Stars (2.83) both finished with marginally higher numbers than the Islanders and are heading to the playoffs.

However, league average this year was 3.14 goals per game, the highest since 1995-96. It’s the highest goal-scoring year post-lockout. 2.78 wasn’t going to cut it.

What’s worse is that number is severely inflated. Coming into 2022, the Islanders were scoring 2.26 goals per game. Even though it climbed to 2.44 after the midway point of the season, that still would’ve put the Islanders dead last in the NHL if that pace continued through the rest of the year.

At his Trade Deadline press conference, Lamoriello said he was disappointed in some players. Here’s who he’s probably referring to:

Anthony Beauviller: Eight points (4G, 4A) on Jan. 1

Kyle Palmieri: Seven points (1G, 6A) on Jan. 1

Oliver Wahlstrom: Nine points (5G, 4A) after Jan. 1

Jean-Gabriel Pageau: 12 points (5G, 7A) on Feb. 1

Beauvillier and Palmieri constitute $9.15 million of cap space and produced 15 points by Jan. 1. Wahlstrom alone, on a two-way entry-level contract making less than $1 million before performance bonuses, had the same amount of points. Pageau receives another $5 million and was only able to muster 12 points through the end of January.

Yes, the offense woke up eventually, but it was too little too late. Management shouldn’t over-focus on the team’s play once they were already essentially eliminated from playoff contention. COVID-19 and the road trips were factors during the beginning of the season, but the roster was healthy for stretches of that period too. If the Isles can’t bring in the dynamic offensive threat that other teams boast, their current players need to step up much more than they did this year.