The First Round of the NHL Playoffs in 2020 had a mixture of very close games and some absolute blowouts further proving how powerful teams such as the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights are. All first and second-seed teams defeated their opponents, and the Islanders and Canucks both upset their opponents in five and six games, respectively. Here are my predictions for the second round of the NHL playoffs using different analytic tools.

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs. Vancouver Canucks (5)

Fueled by their powerful first line of J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser, the Canucks have been extremely successful offensively where they rank sixth in goals for per 60 so far in the playoffs, and although it is a small sample size, in the regular season they ranked ninth. In addition, Jacob Markstrom continued to shine past the regular season and has been one of the top goalies this postseason in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Although they have been pretty successful, I do not see the Canucks defeating the Golden Knights, but it will definitely be closer than expected. The Golden Knights were excellent the whole regular season and continued on through the round-robin and although they dropped a game to the Blackhawks, they showed how offensively dominant they are. Although the Canucks have a slight edge in both defense and goaltending, the offense has been the driving factor for the Golden Knights and will be a force to be reckoned with for the Canuck’s defense.

Prediction: The Vegas Golden Knights defeat the Vancouver Canucks in 7 games.

Colorado Avalanche (2) vs. Dallas Stars (3)

After being down 3-0 in the early minutes of the first period, the Stars offense completely unleashed and scored seven straight unanswered goals to defeat the Calgary Flames and advance to face one of the most daunting teams in the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche. One question that I keep on asking is how can the Avalanche improve? Their offense, highlighted by stars Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen has been impeccable with the highest goals for per 60 in the regular season and top three in the postseason. Cale Makar, the favorite for the Calder Trophy, shined in a defense that ranked top four in goals against per 60 in the regular season and second in the postseason. As far as goaltending, both stars’ goalies, Anton Khudobin and Ben Bishop were fantastic in the regular season where they had 6.15 and 5.71 goals saved above expected. Phillipp Grubauer struggled posting 1.71 goals below expected, but Pavel Francouz was very solid stopping 2.68 goals above expected. This series will be a test to see if the Stars can really compete, but I am going to take the Avalanche, who have been too good this season.

Prediction: The Colorado Avalanche defeat the Dallas Stars in 5 games.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) vs. New York Islanders (6) 

After the all-star break, the Philadelphia Flyers were the hottest team in hockey and nearly seemed unbeatable. After getting the first seed in the round-robin they were slated to face the Montreal Canadiens and after six games of exciting hockey, the Canadiens were sent home. The Flyers have a more talented offense than the Islanders and on the power play it isn’t even close, but the Islanders have had one of the best defenses in the playoffs. Posting 1.64 goals against per 60, the Islanders core defensive line of Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock were so tough for the dominant offenses of the Capitals and Panthers to exploit. In the five games that were played between the Capitals and Islanders, only three different Capitals actually scored a goal and with a dominant force of John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin, TJ Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov there was little to no production. Like the Capitals, the Flyers have some really top offensive skaters that will be tested by the defensive Islanders’ sticks. As long as the Islanders do not give the Flyers many power plays, I truly believe that the Islanders could shock the world and defeat one of the hottest teams in the league.

Prediction: The New York Islanders defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in 6 games.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs. Boston Bruins (4)

The series between the Lightning and Bruins will be one of the most exciting series of all time. Over the regular season, the Lightning had the best offense in terms of goals for per 60 with 3.43 and the Bruins had the best defense in terms of goals against per 60 with only 2.34. What is interesting is that the Bruins fell eighth in goals for on offense and the Lightning fell eighth in goals against for defense. What separates the offense is the power play, the Bruins were first in goals for with 56.25 goals and the Lightning fell seventh with 46.85; in terms of expected statistics, the Bruins were first in expected goals for and the Lightning fell 15th in the league. The Bruins clearly have a better power play, but what could end up hurting them is the loss of the Vezina candidate Tuukka Rask. Jaroslav Halak will be the main goalie and in the regular season after playing 31 games he had 2.29 goals saved above expected. Although Vasilevskiy is known to be elite, he had a very poor season and didn’t even fall top 60 in goals saved above expected, where he had -8.29. This will be a very close series and I expect it to go to seven games, and I do believe the Bruins will pull off the win with their excellent power play and recent success from Halak.

Prediction: The Boston Bruins defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning in 7 games.

John Smark