Analytics Corner: Top 20 Wings in the NHL

After NHL Network released its list of the top 20 wings in the NHL, writer Aidan Resnick and I decided to create our own list. Using advanced stats, we made our way through hundreds of wings, selecting the twenty best. Without further ado, here is our list of the top 20 wings in the NHL.

  1. Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals

For arguably the greatest goal-scorer in NHL history, a ranking at 20 may seem bizarre. NHL Network certainly feels this way, as it ranks him at number four among wingers. While he is still a very good goal-scorer, he does not produce in many other ways. His overall offensive impact is not what it used to be, and his defensive impact is abysmal. In fact, his -2.7 Def is tied for the worst on the list. Ovechkin’s legacy will go down as one of the greatest of all time, but his current performance does not rank any higher than this.

     19. Valeri Nichushkin, Colorado Avalanche

An analytical standout, Nichushkin had a phenomenal year primarily defensively. Ranked number one in Defensive Goals Above Replacement (Def), Nichushkin deserves his spot on the list, despite his lack of recognition around the hockey community. He ranks top 20 in Goals Above Replacement (GAR) among forwards, and overall, he had a very underrated season due to the firepower on his team from star Nathan MacKinnon and Calder Trophy winner Cale Makar. This may be a surprising name on the list, but when you are the best defensive forward in the NHL, you find your way onto these lists.

  1. Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues

It took a season-ending injury for Tarasenko not to have a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of at least two. In fact, before 2019-20, Tarasenko had a WAR of at least two in every season since 2013-14 and likely would have had one every season had it not been for the lockout in his rookie season. A Stanley Cup champion, Tarasenko has been one of the best players in the NHL ever since being arguably the most valuable player in 2014-15, tying for first among skaters in GAR. It remains to be seen how Tarasenko produces after his injury, but it is impossible to ignore his consistent production.

  1. Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames

Despite struggling immensely in the 2019-2020 season, Gaudreau has had a strong offensive career that is tough to overlook when creating the rankings. On both the power play and even-strength, Gaudreau demonstrated no sense of his previous self, where he was well above average in terms of Goals For per 60 Minutes (GF/60)–almost two standard deviations greater. Due to his lackluster season, Gaudreau falls to the number 17 spot, which is still a remarkable feat.

 

  1. Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche

On arguably the best and most talented line in hockey, Rantanen seems only to produce. Starring both on the power play and at even strength, he is well above average in terms of GF/60 and has improved his defense tremendously from when he first entered the league four years ago. In his first full season, 2016-17, he was three standard deviations below the average in terms of xGA/60 and around 2.5 standard deviations below the average in terms of CA/60. In the past two years, he has hovered around replacement level. Although it is crazy to say, if he improves even more defensively, his line can improve even more.

  1. Matthew Tkachuk, Calgary Flames

Tkachuk is one of the most exciting players in the game. He is a scrappy player, always looking to make a big hit. However, unlike most “goons” in the NHL, Tkachuk is an elite talent. At only 22 years old, Tkachuk is already the best player on the Calgary Flames, in our opinion, and he is only getting better. He finished within the top 30 in GAR among forwards this past season, and he should see that number go only up as his career progresses.

  1. Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks

Calder Trophy finalist in 2017-18, Boeser comes in at number 14 on our list. In that very season, Boeser finished top 25 among skaters in Expected Wins Above Replacement (xWAR). Since then, while his production has not been as strong, he has become one of the best players on one of the most exciting teams in the league. Surrounded by young stars such as Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, Boeser should enjoy a significant amount of individual and team success in his career.

  1. Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers

Continuing with the narrative of his entire career, Huberdeau had another fantastic offensive season in 2019-20. With a GF/60 three standard deviations above average, he has been one of the best offensive wings in the season. What lands him at 13 is the lack of defensive prowess. His xGA/60 and CA/60 are both below replacement-level. Nonetheless, with his offensive presence on the power play and even strength, Huberdeau deserves a spot on this list.

  1. Oliver Bjorkstrand, Columbus Blue Jackets

Bjorkstrand at number 12 may be a surprise to some, but a deep dive into his numbers shows that he deserves this ranking. In a 2019-20 season that was cut short due to injury, Bjorkstrand was the best player on the Columbus Blue Jackets. In fact, Bjorkstrand finished in the top-five in GAR/60 among forwards who played at least 500 minutes last season. One of the better middle-round draft picks of the past decade, Bjorkstrand, at only 25 years of age, should be a dominant forward for the Blue Jackets for years to come.

 

  1. Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes

The second overall pick in 2019, Svechnikov has an extremely bright future. Although his rookie season fell short of expectations, Svechnikov had a wonderful 2019-20 season, portraying excellence that carried over into the postseason. He finished top 30 in GAR last season, and that ranking should continue to rise over the course of his career. The sky’s the limit for Svechnikov, and almost cracking the top ten wingers after his second season will be one of many feats in his career.

  1. Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes

Teravainen is finally gaining recognition in the hockey community, but unfortunately, he has not gained enough to crack NHL Network’s top 20. While most people consider either Sebastian Aho or Andrei Svechnikov to be the top forward on the Carolina Hurricanes, we consider Teravainen to be the best one. Per Corey Sznajder’s transition data, Teravainen had the fourth most zone entries among the wingers on this list last season, and he has a positive Offensive Goals Above Replacement (Off) and Def last season as well. The epitome of a well-rounded player, Teravainen falls at number ten on our list.

  1. Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets

When most hockey fans think of superstar wingers on the Winnipeg Jets, a few players likely come to mind. Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler, and Kyle Connor are likely some that come to mind. Well, those three players came to mind for NHL Network; each of them cracked the top 15. Apparently, we see Jets wingers slightly differently, as none of the aforementioned players made our list. Nonetheless, Ehlers comes in at number nine, as he is one of the best players in the league in one of the most underlooked parts of the game: transition. Per Corey Sznajder’s transition data, Ehlers ranked seventh in the league in zone entries and fifth among forwards in zone exits last season. Additionally, he is first in both categories among players on this list. Because of his dominance in the transition, he falls at number nine on our list.

  1. Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs

Marner was one of the best players in the league in 2018-19, possessing a WAR of 3.5. An elite playmaker in one of the biggest hockey cities in the world, Marner has certainly been in the spotlight for his entire young career. Needless to say, he has thrived. NHL Network almost agrees with us on this ranking, as he falls into the number eight spot on its list. At only 23 years old, Marner is one of the best players in the NHL, and he is getting only better.

  1. Brendan Gallagher, Montreal Canadiens

Brendan Gallagher is one of the most underappreciated players in the NHL but not necessarily because of his talent. At only 5’9”, Gallagher does not have the physical dominance that many other top wings do. Additionally, he does not possess a big shot that opponents should fear. Nonetheless, he falls in the number seven spot on this list because he is one of the hardest-working players in the NHL, evidenced by his league-leading Corsi For per 60 Minutes (CF/60) last season. Nobody generated more offense for the players around him in the offensive zone than Gallagher last year, and thus, he was the best player on the Montreal Canadiens last season.

  1. Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers

Giroux has been elite for longer than a decade by now, but for some reason, he is losing recognition. NHL Network ranks him at number 18, but Giroux is still an elite talent in the NHL. Giroux was the best player in the NHL just three seasons ago, ranking first in GAR among skaters in 2017-18, and he still performs at a high level on a top team. Although the top five is very clear, and Giroux falls short of that, he is the next best player on this list, so he falls at number six.

  1. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins

The best forward in the league on the power play, David Pastrnak dominated offensively. Top three in terms of individual expected goals on the power play (ixG) and top ten in terms of GAR, Pastrnak is one of the main reasons why the Boston Bruins won the President’s Trophy. His offensive presence is also shown in the power play, as his Expected Power-Play Offensive Goals Above Replacement (xPPO) was 3.3 higher than every other player. What sets him at the five spot is his lack of defense. As the top four players play defense much better than Pastrnak, he falls just behind them.

  1. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning

The 2018-2019 Hart Trophy Winner, Kucherov, continued his dominance in the 2019-2020 season. On undoubtedly the best team in hockey, Kucherov was top six in Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) which demonstrates his ability to create opportunities and produce. Also, on the power play, he was well above replacement in terms of GF/60 and xGF/60. His elite offensive prowess slides him in at number four.

  1. Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins

Another top Bruin lands in our top five. Marchand’s versatility on the penalty kill and on the power play is what placed him top three. Like Pastrnak, he is extremely offensively gifted, but although he is not as strong as Pastrnak on the power play, he is elite on the penalty kill, ranking first in Shorthanded Defensive Goals Above Replacement (SHD) among wings on this list in 2019-20. In xOff, he was a top-12 and in xDef, he was top eight. His ability as a two-way forward and on special teams is what places him at such a high spot.

  1. Mark Stone, Vegas Golden Knights

Although it might surprise many, Stone lands at the second spot on our rankings. His capability as a two-way forward is what separates him from so many others. On a mainly offensively minded Vegas offense, he brings a key element – a top forward on the power play, even strength, and on defense. In the 2018-2019 season, he was arguably the best player in the league, as he was top-ten both offensively and definitely according to xGAR, but although his defense declined in the next season, he was still well above replacement-level. If you are noticing a trend, we really value forwards that excel in the two-way game–many forget that defense is very important too!

     1. Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers

Alas, we have arrived at the top spot. Without a doubt the top acquisition coming into the 2019-2020 season, Panarin lived up to all the hype. Given that Panarin, it was no surprise that he was the best player in the league. Although Leon Draisaitl also had a fantastic season, Panarin deserved the Hart Trophy with the numbers he was able to put up in all phases of the game. Also, what sets him apart from the other wings is his ability on the transition game, finishing top ten in zone entries in 2019-20, per Corey Sznajder’s transition data. Altogether, his well-rounded performance makes him the best wing in the NHL today.

 

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise indicated.

Positions are determined by Hockey-Reference

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