Analytics Corner: Top 20 Centers in the NHL
After NHL Network released its list of the top-20 centers in the NHL, writer Kush Malhotra and I decided to create our own list. Using advanced stats, we made our way through hundreds of centers, selecting the twenty best. Without further adieu, here is our list of the top-20 centers in the NHL.
20. Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg Jets
The first draft pick in the history of the new Winnipeg Jets, Scheifele has been a key piece on a relatively successful team in the last half-decade. In fact, Scheifele ranks eighth among all skaters in Goals Above Replacement (GAR) since 2014-15, solidifying himself as one of the most valuable players to his team in recent years. Scheifele’s biggest flaw is his defense, as he ranked as the fifth-worst defensive forward in 2019-20 according to Defensive Goals Above Replacement (Def). If Scheifele improves his defense, he could find himself much higher on this list, but for now, he comes in at number 20.
19. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers
The first overall pick in 2011, Nugent-Hopkins may have seemed to have an underwhelming career. And in one sense, this is fair because his career has not had as strong of a peak as the careers of the four previous first overall picks, Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, and Taylor Hall. However, he has actually been one of the most consistent players of the past decade. Additionally, it was nice to see him have a career year this past season, with a GAR of 13.4. Furthermore, not only was he a high-impact player, but he was productive in all areas of the game. Among forwards, he finished top 80 in Even-Strength Offensive Goals Above Replacement (EVO), Even-Strength Defensive Goals Above Replacement (EVD), Shorthanded Defensive Goals Above Replacement (SHD), and he finished ninth in Power-Play Offensive Goals Above Replacement. Make no mistake; Nugent-Hopkins, perhaps overshadowed by superstars on his team, is a true superstar himself.
18. Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins
Unfortunately, a shoulder injury cut Guentzel’s season short at 39 games last season. At the time of the injury, Guentzel had been playing like one of the best players in the league for over a year. In 2018-19, Guentzel finished sixth among skaters in Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR), proving his dominance as a playmaker on a line with the best player of our generation, Sidney Crosby. At only 26 years of age, Guentzel falls at number 18 on this list and could find himself much higher in future years.
17. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
After having a phenomenal offensive season in 2018-2019, where he was 3rd among all skaters in terms of Goals Above Replacement, Barkov simply had a down season, posting a GAR that decreased almost by a factor of 10. Even though the Panthers were a competitive team, Barkov seemed to have no edge, where he struggled extremely on defense with -5.5 Def. What lands him at 17, even with such a bad season is his past numbers. Given that he was arguably top-10 last season, we still feel that he deserves a spot on the rankings, just not a spot as high as he would have been a year ago.
16. Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning
On a team with so many other superstars, Cirelli flies under the radar as a superstar himself. While fans may look for hours trying to find the reason some talented teams are successful and some are relatively unsuccessful, look no further than Cirelli. A center who plays a strong 200-foot game, Cirelli ranks 17th among skaters in GAR since the beginning of the 2018-19 season. Combine his regular season with elite play in the postseason that helped bring a Stanley Cup championship to Tampa Bay, and you have a bonafide top-20 center.
15. John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs
Former New York Islanders superstar Tavares’s numbers are often overlooked, as his team consists of two other extremely talented forwards in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Although the 2019-2020 season was not his best, the previous season portrays his dominance. In the 2018-2019 season he was a top 12 skater in terms of GAR, where he served as an extreme offensive threat. He is fifteenth on our list solely because of his down year, but he could rank much higher if he returns to his old dominance in 2021.
14. Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins
One of the best players of this generation and three-time Stanley Cup champion, Malkin had another fantastic offensive season as one of the Penguins’ main forces. In 2019-20, he was a top-12 skater in terms of Goals For per 60 Minutes (GF/60) and was ranked first in terms of Expected Goals For per 60 (xGF/60). Furthermore, he provided offensive opportunities for his teammates as well as seemingly anybody else in the NHL. That said, he is ranked at number 14 due to his lack of defensive success throughout his lengthy career.
13. Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues
2019 Selke Trophy winner Ryan O’Reilly is a crucial part of the offensive and defense component of the Blues offense. After his phenomenal 2018-2019 season, he slightly regressed and still led the NHL in terms of Corsi Against (CA) by a long shot. Evidently one of the most effective forwards at preventing opposing scoring chances, he rose to the number 13 spot in our rankings this season.
12. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
In sports, it is not infrequent to see a player’s career become derailed by injuries, prompting “what if…” questions about their career. Stamkos is a player who has had multiple significant injuries in his career, one of which even kept him out of the vast majority of his team’s Stanley Cup run, but we have seen how talented he is, regardless of any injuries. Since he entered the league in 2008, only two players have had a higher GAR (Sidney Crosby and Anze Kopitar). Still a high-impact player, Stamkos has cemented himself as one of the best players of our generation.
11. Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders
In our opinions, Barzal, also known as the “the kid who won the Calder,” is the most unique player on this list. Whereas most players on this list are strongest in the offensive or defensive zone, Barzal is best in between. As one of the best transition forwards in the NHL today, and certainly one of the fastest, Barzal nearly cracks the top 10 because of his excellence in the middle of the ice. In 2019-20, Barzal had the second-most zone entries and had a Carry-in Percentage of 77.5%, per Corey Sznajder’s transition data. In an era in which carrying the puck into the offensive zone has been proven to be more valuable than dumping the puck in, a player of Barzal’s style and caliber should be considered more valuable than ever before.
10. Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres
Being the only elite player on the Sabres has not stopped Eichel’s production. The 2019-2020 season was his best offensive and defensive season at even strength in terms of EVO and EVD, and in terms of GAR, he finished top 15 among skaters. There seems to be an upward trend with Eichel, and we are confident he will rise in the next few years on our list, especially as we may get to see him perform in the postseason for the first time in his career.
9. Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
Surrounded by elite wingers in Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, Bergeron is in an ideal position to succeed. Since the 2015-16 season, he has been above replacement-level in terms of GAR and what really sets him apart is his dominance in four aspects of the game: EVO, EVD, PPO, SHD. Bergeron feasts on the Bruins’ top power-play unit but also remains strong defensively both at even strength and on the penalty kill. He has been a rock for the Bruins for years, and he still serves as one of the most valuable players in the NHL today.
8. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
The number eight spot may seem a bit low for the best player of our generation, and make no mistake; he is still a fantastic player, but center is a very star-studded position. In 2018-19, he posted a GAR of 27.8, one of many wonderful accomplishments in his career. However, he followed that up with a per-82-game GAR of 6 in 2019-20. An extremely disappointing season is what slides him down on this year’s rankings, but do not be surprised if he skyrockets back up next season.
7. Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
With one of the best first games in NHL history, Auston Matthews has lit it up in the NHL since day one. In the 2019-2020 season, he played much better defensively, posting an above-average EVD, whereas in previous years, he was well below average. Also, what made him stick apart this year was his league-leading xGAR. He landed at number seven spot only because the skaters ahead of him excelled far more either offensively or defensively, but don’t be surprised if you see Matthews jump up to a higher spot as he matures as a hockey player.
6. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
2020 Hart Trophy winner Leon Draisaitl had an incredible offensive season that helped lead the Oilers to the postseason. Even more than just the traditional stat of points, he ranked second among skaters in terms of Off, which demonstrates offensive capability. The main issue with Draisaitl is his lack of defense; his -7.4 Def last season ranked third-worst among forwards. The number six spot seems like a fair spot for him at this point in his career because of his dominant offense but lackluster defense.
5. Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers
Couturier at the fifth spot may even surprise Flyers fans. Landing before seemingly better players Draisaitl and Matthews, Couturier has been a consistent two-way force, which is what sets him apart. Ranking third among skaters in terms of GAR over the past three seasons, Couturier has become one of the best players in the NHL in recent years. The reigning Selke Trophy winner has evidently been well above replacement-level in Def and EVD. Defense is extremely overlooked in hockey, but when evaluating a player it is essential to look at both sides of the ice, which is why Couturier lands at such a high spot.
4. Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
The Calder Trophy winner in 2018-19, Pettersson has become one of the elite-two way players in the NHL. Last season, Pettersson finished second among skaters and first among centers in GAR, a feat that must not be underlooked. Whereas many young players have glaring flaws, Pettersson did not have a negative GAR in any area of the game last season, a testament to his attention to detail. At only 22 years of age, Pettersson is set to become one of the best players of the decade and beyond.
3. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
One of the most fun skaters to watch, MacKinnon truly can do it all. With a significant portion of his team sidelined last season, he still kept up incredible offensive numbers and led the Avalanche deep into the postseason. He is top three in terms of GF/60, fifteenth in terms of xGF/60, and sixth in terms of Corsi For per 60 (CF/60), proving that he is an offensive mastermind. The reason for placing him at three has little to do with MacKinnon; it is more a testament to the dominance of the top-two centers.
2. Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning
Point ahead of MacKinnon may shock some people, and this was a decision that did not come easily, but it is impossible to ignore how unbelievably dominant Point is in all areas of the game. Over the past two seasons, no skater has posted a greater GAR than Point. Rarely can one player “carry” a hockey team, but Point played an irreplaceable role for the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2019-20 playoffs, and with the assistance of some other superstar talents, he helped to bring the Stanley Cup to Tampa Bay. There may not be a smarter hockey player than Point, and he is finally proving his value to the hockey community.
1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Fans and analysts can try to get cute by naming someone other than McDavid the best player in the NHL, but let it be known that in our opinions, McDavid is the best hockey player in the world by a remarkable margin. No player possesses a combination of offensive dominance and transition dominance even close to McDavid’s. It is worth noting that McDavid is a defensive liability at this point in his career, but he leads all players in GAR by 12 since he entered the league in 2015, and he also led all skaters in zone entries last season, per Corey Sznajder’s transition data. McDavid is already a generational talent, and he could become an all-time great if he improves his defensive game even just a bit.
All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey unless otherwise indicated.
Positions are determined by Hockey-Reference.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.
Great article!