Debunking Myths: How Good is Brayden Point?
Connor McDavid is the best player in the NHL. Most fans know that, and the numbers back it up. But who is the second best player? Many fans would argue that Nathan MacKinnon has earned that title. An electrifying player with elite speed and hands, MacKinnon is a force to be reckoned with on the offensive end of the ice. Other fans might argue that Crosby has not done enough to lose said title. After all, why shouldn’t we credit one of the best players of all time? Is it Artemi Panarin? Leon Draisaitl? Nikita Kucherov? Not in my opinion. For me, Tampa Bay Lightning superstar Brayden Point takes the cake.
Simply put, Point may be the closest thing to a perfect player in today’s NHL. What does it mean to be perfect? Well, no hockey player is perfect because every hockey player is a human, and it is only natural for humans to have imperfect moments. But perfect is a more fitting description of Point than it is of any other NHL player because Point impacts the game positively in nearly every aspect of the game. Offense, defense, transition, you name it! Point does it all.
It is important to differentiate between skill and impact. I am not saying that Point is the second-most skilled player in the NHL. That title may belong to Nathan MacKinnon. But in terms of impact, Point has the edge over MacKinnon. Since Point entered the NHL in 2016-17, he has posted a single-season Goals Above Replacement (GAR) higher than MacKinnon’s in all but one season. In that span, MacKinnon’s Offensive Goals Above Replacement (Off) is 0.3 higher than Point’s, but Point has a positive Defensive Goals Above Replacement, while MacKinnon does not. Given that the players have similar transition data, defensive impact is what separates Point and MacKinnon.
Many hockey fans may cling on to the opinion that Sidney Crosby is the second-best player in the NHL, but this stance is no longer supported by data. Crosby’s 2019-20 season was extremely disappointing, regardless of his elite past. Among all skaters last season, Crosby ranked an ugly 331st in GAR. Granted, he missed 28 games, but his rate statistics are not much better. To put this into perspective, Point finished 4th among skaters in GAR last season. Crosby is one of the best players of all time, but Point is certainly the better player at this very moment.
Perhaps an argument for the best skater in the NHL last season, Artemi Panarin, could be put together. After all, Panarin’s 24.9 GAR ranked first among all skaters last season. But when we expand our sample size to any greater number of seasons, Point’s GAR is higher. Both players are extremely effective in transition, but whereas Panarin’s career Def is -7, Point’s is 4.7. His two-way prowess is unmatched by other elite forwards, and it is time that he gains the respect he deserves.
Leon Draisaitl would be the second-best player in the world, behind only his teammate, if offensive production were the sole factor for which to account. But, unfortunately for Draisaitl’s case, the ice rink is 200 feet. The reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner, although the extent to which he deserved it can be debated, has the second highest Off over the past two seasons, behind only McDavid. So why is he not a more valuable player than Point? Well, in this time span, Point ranks third in Off, so he is not too far behind. Additionally, Draisaitl posted the sixth worst Def in this span, proving that he is a liability on the defensive end. Draisaitl is a world-class offensive talent, but in terms of overall impact, Point has a leg up.
Finally, let’s compare Point to his teammate, Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov ranks first in Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) over the past three seasons, proving his elite playmaking abilities. That said, Point ranks within the top ten in the same metric, and when we look at GAR instead, we find a much more compelling case for Point. In each of the past two seasons, Point’s GAR has been notably higher than Kucherov’s, and now that Kucherov will be sidelined for the entire 2020-21 season with a hip injury, we find a much brighter with Point than with Kucherov as the Lightning seek to defend their Stanley Cup title.
So there you have it. There is no better time to be a hockey fan; almost all of the best players in the NHL are still very young, which means that we should be exposed to exciting hockey for the next decade and beyond. And look no further than Brayden Point as the catalyst of this excitement. An electrifying player in his own way, Point is currently the second most valuable player in the NHL, and I cannot wait to see the player he becomes as he develops into his prime self.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.