The narrative that the Islanders have the best fourth line in the NHL has run rampant for more than half a decade, but perhaps it’s time for a breakup.

Offensive Struggles in 2021

The fourth line has struggled this year. The Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck line has an expected goals percentage (xGoals percentage) of 40%, which ranks tenth-lowest in the NHL among forward lines that have played at least 60 minutes. Still, the trio has been very effective playing defense this season. When the three players are on the ice, the Islanders’ defensive expected goals per 60-minutes (xG/60) has been 20% below league average.

The magnitude of their lackluster offensive impact has been far greater than the magnitude of their defensive impact, as their offensive xG/60 is 36% below league average this season.

Is Consistent Defense Better Than Sporadic Offense?

The “e=mc^2” line, a name MSG+ color analyst Butch Goring gave them after Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity, is physical, pesky and energetic. “M” stands for Matt Martin and “C-squared” refers to Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck, who have played together since before Barry Trotz became head coach. General Manager Lou Lamoriello reunited them in July 2018, two years after Martin left the Islanders to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The fourth line undoubtedly excels at certain aspects of the game. The three players forecheck and apply pressure on opposing top lines quite well, and these individual characteristics have served the Islanders well over the years.

However, with their play comes a clear lack of offensive impact. Despite sporadic scoring bursts, the Islanders’ fourth line has never been a consistent source of offensive production. But since scoring goals has frequently posed as an issue for the Islanders, depth scoring would certainly be helpful. So given its strengths and weaknesses, we now can ask a simple question about this historically effective fourth line. Should it split apart?

A Small Sample Size

Despite the discouraging statistics, the Islanders have only played 16 games this season, and the trio has been together for many seasons before this one. The line has always been quite strong defensively, but their offensive impact has been abnormally poor this season. Their offensive xG/60 was only 17% below league average in the most recent full season (2018-2019), which is quite strong for a fourth line.

Additionally, their expected goals percentage was 58.7% in 2019-2020 and 55.3% in 2018-2019. Clearly, this line has been more productive in the past. It is only a matter of time before their dominance returns. Even in the scenario that they don’t return to form, it is essential that the Islanders have a forward line that prioritizes defense. 

Keep it Together

While it would be an interesting experiment to flank Cizikas with a different set of wingers, the fourth line should absolutely stay together in the long run. It brings defense, physicality and toughness to the lineup, and it will always pose a threat opposing first lines. 

All statistics are from Hockey-Viz and MoneyPuck and are accurate at the time of writing.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.