The New York Islanders will look to get back to their winning ways on Saturday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

After falling 4-1 to the Penguins on Thursday, the Islanders will have a chance at revenge only two days later. Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry excelled on Thursday, posting a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of 1.63 and allowing only one puck past him. Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan confirmed that Jarry will start in goal tonight.

For the Islanders, Semyon Varlamov should pick up his second consecutive start in goal. He has had an excellent start to the season, currently ranking eleventh in GSAx among all goaltenders. Expect him to remain strong tonight against a dominant offensive team.

Storylines

After Thursday’s loss, Islanders head coach Barry Trotz expressed frustration toward Kieffer Bellows’s play. Although Bellows had the fifth-highest Expected Goal Differential (xG +/-) on the Islanders on Thursday night, Trotz evidently feels that his performance does not warrant another opportunity. It seems unlikely that Bellows will be in the lineup tonight; perhaps veteran Leo Komarov will fill in for him.

It is a special night for Penguins captain Sidney Crosby, who is set to play in his 1,000th NHL game. The leader in Goals Above Replacement (GAR) since 2007, Crosby will add this milestone to his wide range of accomplishments over his historic career. Crosby is already one of hockey’s all-time greats, and it is a pleasure to watch him continue to excel at this point in his career.

Players To Watch

Since his second season, Crosby has played alongside two players who have put together fantastic careers themselves: Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. However, while Crosby remains dominant, Malkin and Letang have struggled to maintain their elite production this season. Among Penguins skaters, Malkin ranks second-last in GAR and Letang ranks last in Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) this season. For two players well into their thirties, these marks could signal a significant drop in production this season. In a crucial battle between two teams that are separated by two points in the standings, the Penguins likely will need the help of their best players in order to emerge victorious.

On a per-minute basis, no Islander has been better than Oliver Wahlstrom this season. His Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (GAR/60) is nearly twice as high as any other Islander’s GAR/60, which is especially impressive given his lack of experience in the NHL. Expect Wahlstrom to continue to produce at a high level as he develops into an everyday top-six forward.

Prediction: Islanders 4 – Penguins 3

Before their loss on Thursday, the Islanders had been playing better than every other team in the NHL. One game should not deter their play, so expect the Islanders to come out strong against the Penguins and to play a far more structured game than their opponents. 

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.