The Islanders could not get their revenge on the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night, falling 3-2. The loss is the Islanders’ second consecutive one; both losses came at the hands of the Penguins.

First Period

The first period was extremely uneventful, as the Penguins’ win probability hovered around 54% for the entire period. The Islanders outshot the Penguins 16-4, but their apparent dominance did not amount to anything significant.

Second Period

The second period seemed to be quite similar to the first until Kris Letang broke the ice with his first goal of the night, which brought the Penguins’ win probability up to 76.4%. However a Jordan Eberle goal took the Penguins’ win probability down to only 50.5%, marking a huge turning point in the game. The Penguins played well for the remainder of the period, but the score remained tied at one goal after the second period.

Third Period

Near the beginning of the third period, Brock Nelson floated a puck past Tristan Jarry to give the Islanders a 2-1 lead. At this point, the Islanders’ win probability was 74.6%. However, the Penguins responded with not only one goal but two goals. Mike Matheson and Kris Letang both lit the lamp, putting the Penguins in front 3-2. That was all that the Penguins needed, as they emerged with a crucial 3-2 victory.

Summary

The Islanders’ skaters thoroughly outplayed the Penguins’ skaters tonight. At nearly every point of the game, the Islanders were leading in both Expected Goals For and Corsi For. Nonetheless, their production was not enough, as Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry was undoubtedly the better goaltender tonight; Jarry’s Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) was 0.43, while Varlamov’s GSAx was -1.4.

The most productive skaters in today’s game, along with their Expected Goal Differentials (xG +/-), were Nick Leddy (1.27), Jordan Eberle (0.82), Mathew Barzal (0.66), Scott Mayfield (0.61) and Anders Lee (0.49). The least productive skaters were Bryan Rust (-0.63), Teddy Blueger (-0.61), Kris Letang (-0.53), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (-0.52) and Marcus Pettersson (-0.5). These statistics only further the notion that the Islanders had better skaters than the Penguins tonight, but the Penguins are the team that leaves the arena with two more points in the standings.

What’s Next?

The Islanders are set to take on the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday Night at 7:00 PM EST at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum.

All statistics are from Evolving-Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.