Should the Islanders Be Playing for the Shootout?
Playing for the shootout, essentially trying to escape overtime hoping you’ll win in the shootout, might not be the flashiest way to win an NHL hockey game. Though, if it works, why not give it a shot?
This current season, the Islanders have gone 2-3 in overtime and 2-1 in shootout. Nothing special, especially with such a small sample size. Previous seasons have been more of the same. Last season, the Islanders went .500 in the shootout and went one game over .500 in overtime.
At first glance, it seems that since the Islanders are just as efficient in overtime as they are in the shootout, the Islanders should play for the shootout. A shootout is much slower paced and gives coaches and players a chance to mentally prepare before each shot.
Settling for an overtime point can also cost you a trip to the playoffs. For example, in 2018-19, the Chicago Blackhawks had 84 points and lost in overtime 12 times. They missed the playoffs by just six points. If they played their cards right, they may have been able to turn half of those overtime/shootout losses into wins and sneak into the postseason.
ROW (regulation and overtime wins) is the last item to note about the NHL’s overtime format. The statistic is exactly what it’s name alludes to: regulations and overtime wins combined. Another way to think about ROW is that it is simply subtracting shootout wins from a team’s total number of wins.
The goal of ROW is to discourage teams from playing for the shootout. ROW is the first tiebreaker that the NHL will use to determine the final standings. So, if a team is playing at the same efficiency between overtime and the shootout, it’s better to win the game in OT.
With all those factors in mind, should the New York Islanders play for the shootout during overtime?
The last six seasons, the NHL has used a 3-on-3 overtime format. So, to make each season consistent, those seasons will serve as the observed sample.
Overall, for the last six seasons, the Islanders have been stunningly average in both categories. In overtime, they won at a rate of 52.2 percent. In the shootout, they won at a rate of 48.3 percent. Over 108 games, there was only a 4.9 percent difference between the Islanders ability to win in overtime and the shootout.
To answer the question: no, the Islanders should not be playing for the shootout.
Not only would ROW be in their favor due to a league preference for team’s to win in overtime, they also win more in overtime and play at a higher rate anyway. The Islanders, and virtually every team in the NHL, should play to win in overtime. So, the New York Islanders should not be shifting any of their strategies towards taking the mulligan for a shootout.
