As the 2021-2022 Islanders season gets underway, the hockey analytics community becomes captivated with potential breakouts and potential disappointments. Thanks to JFresh’s Hockey’s 2020-22 WAR Cards (support his Patreon), data visualizations that exhibit the change in a player’s production from the end of last season to today, we can gain insight into these developments. While many Islanders have remained consistent over the past few years, a few players have taken their games to new heights.

Scott Mayfield

Since Lou Lamoriello traded defenseman Devon Toews to the Colorado Avalanche, the Islanders have been in desperate need of defensive depth — Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech cannot play 60 minutes each game. While a trade or an off-season signing made sense in theory, the Islanders bet on Mayfield’s production by thrusting him into a larger role over time. Now, the Islanders are reaping the profits of their gamble.

Mayfield has steadily improved in every area of the game, an encouraging sign for the Islanders. His offensive and defensive production at even-strength, as well as his penalty killing, penalty drawing and taking, and shooting, has reached new heights. Furthermore, his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) percentile has improved from 52 to 72, increasing his value from a league-average defenseman to a borderline first-pairing one.

The most notable improvement is his even-strength offense, which serves a team in need of offensive contributions from its defensemen quite well. Many fans expected Noah Dobson to fill the shoes of Devon Toews or the offensive role of Nick Leddy. It’s time to shift our focus to Mayfield.

Andy Greene

No, the standard NHL aging curve does not predict a player to improve entering their age-39 season. “Father time” was undefeated — that is, until Andy Greene came around.

Andy Greene’s game has improved for two reasons. First, his production has stayed remarkably consistent in his areas of strength — specifically, killing penalties and staying out of the box. Second, Andy Greene slowly began to remove his “offensive liability” status, jumping from the 6th percentile of even-strength offense to the 17th percentile. Although the 17th percentile of any statistic is far from something to write home about, combining his boosted offensive production with his solid defense and elite penalty-killing makes for a really solid hockey player.

Oliver Wahlstrom

At last, we have arrived at a source of development that wholly reflects the standard aging curve. Wahlstrom’s elite finishing — rising from the 83rd percentile to the 93rd percentile — has been clear to the human eye, but what most analysts can’t see is that most of Wahlstrom’s value comes from his defense.

Wahlstrom is currently in the 85th percentile in even-strength defense, a boost of five percentage points, which greatly exceeds his drop from the 26th percentile in even-strength offense to the 23rd percentile. Most young goal scorers succeed offensively and struggle mightily defensively, but Wahlstrom is a rare counterexample of this trend. However, Wahlstrom’s WAR is already in the 88th percentile, and his next area of development is clear: even-strength offense.

For reference, Wahlstrom is dominant on the power play, generally a period of sustained offense in which players with natural skill have time and space to generate scoring chances. Even strength offense is much less comfortable, especially for young players, so Wahlstrom, despite his talent, has yet to create a significant impact in that department. However, as Wahlstrom grows accustomed to hockey at a professional level, he should find innovative ways to use his elite skillset to become an elite, well-rounded player.

All statistics are from JFresh Hockey.

Aidan Resnick

Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.