Matt Martin Should Lose His Spot in Islanders Lineup
Many NHL players have played more games than Islanders forwards Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin. But few, if any, play on a line that has stuck together like these three fourth liners.
For most of their tenure, the identity line is the element of the organization that sets the team apart from their competition. The Islanders’ are not that talented compared to the rest of the league. However, to have a trio of fourth-liners that defends and applies pressure at an extremely high rate is a rarity. The Islanders have used it to their advantage for many years.
Nonetheless, it should be no secret that the Islanders’ fourth line produces at a level well below its peak. In fact, in terms of Expected Goals Above Replacement per 60 Minutes (xGAR/60), Cizikas’s production is at a career-low, and Martin’s production is his worst since 2010-2011. Although Clutterbuck is still helping the team at a significant mark, he has experienced his fair share of struggles in recent years, producing below replacement level in both 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.
Moreover, the talent surrounding the fourth line has changed immensely. Since its inception, the fourth line has coexisted with John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen, Jordan Eberle and Devon Toews, among others –– talented offensive players who lifted the offensive burden off the fourth line. Although the Islanders still possess skillful forwards, their holistic offense is a shell of what it once was, currently lying 30th in the NHL in Even-Strength Offense xGAR/60 (EVO xGAR/60).
Thus, the utility of the fourth line has changed drastically. Whereas it once served as a defensive unit best used to prevent opposing offense –– especially when tasked with preventing a lead –– its fading defensive production and the team’s offensive struggles have reduced the value of such a line.
Although blatantly illogical, protecting Cizikas and Clutterbuck instead of Eberle in the Seattle Expansion Draft is forever in the past. While Eberle is no longer an Islander, several forwards with limited playing time — such as Oliver Wahlstrom, Kieffer Bellows, Austin Czarnik and Richard Panik — can replace Eberle’s production when utilized optimally. As the Islanders look to climb an extremely steep mountain into the playoffs, offense must be a priority. Barry Trotz should yield Martin’s playing time to a younger, more offensive-minded forward.
Aidan is a freshman at the University of Chicago, studying data science and business economics, and an aspiring sports analyst. In 2019, he attended the Wharton Moneyball Academy, the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Conference, and the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, experiences that inspired him to pursue sports analytics. Aidan’s passion for sports analytics is best represented in his newest sports analytics book, “The Stats Game,” where he illuminates statistical tools and debunks myths in sports analytics, as well as in his victorious Diamond Dollars Case Competition project and in Resnick Player Profiles. A lifelong New York Islanders fan, Aidan always approaches his work with Drive4Five with an analytical mindset, focusing on the newest advancements in hockey analytics to maximize the precision of his content. Aside from sports analytics, Aidan is a dedicated violinist and chess player.
